Workiva heads into its May 28 earnings print with options traders unusually bullish — a notable contrast to a stock that has shed 7% in the past month and carries a meaningful short position.
The clearest signal is in options. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.44, roughly one standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.84. That means call activity is dominating the options market heading into the print — a posture that looks more like anticipation than hedging. The 52-week range on the PCR runs from 0.06 to 1.64, so the current reading is not at an extreme, but the direction since early May is unambiguous: protective put demand has collapsed since the prior earnings shock.
That shock is relevant context. The last print, on May 5, sent the stock down nearly 9% in a single session and 17% over the following five days — a severe reaction that appears to have reset expectations materially. Workiva now trades at $49.33, down from above $64 in February. Short interest has crept up about 6% over the past month to 8.3% of the free float, a meaningful level for a mid-cap software name, though the borrow market remains completely unconstricted — availability is running at roughly 3,455% of short interest, with cost to borrow at just 0.52%. There is no squeeze pressure here; shorts are sitting comfortably.
The analyst community has trimmed but not abandoned the bull case. Stifel and BTIG both cut targets after the May 5 result — Stifel to $65 from $79, BTIG to $80 from $90 — while maintaining Buy ratings. Yesterday, Stephens reiterated its Overweight with a $68 target unchanged, the first post-selloff reaffirmation. The consensus mean target of $78.73 implies roughly 60% upside from current levels, though targets have been a moving goalpost: Baird and Truist both trimmed sharply in February, and the Street has been in catch-down mode for months. Bulls point to strong CRPO growth, multi-product platform wins with Big Four co-sell momentum, and an improving margin profile. Bears note that consecutive earnings disappointments have damaged the revenue growth narrative, particularly in a tightening enterprise spending environment where Workiva's heavy US concentration leaves little room for error. EPS momentum scores rank in the 85th percentile on a 30-day basis — a sign that forward estimates have been moving higher recently — yet co-founder insiders Matthew Rizai and Martin Vanderploeg trimmed their stakes in Q1, adding a quiet note of caution from within.
Jericho Capital initiated a fresh stake of 2.47 million shares in Q1, one of the more distinctive ownership moves in the quarter, while Eminence Capital trimmed by 1.19 million shares — two active managers moving in opposite directions, which captures the debate precisely. The print will test whether Workiva's subscription revenue trajectory and the margin expansion story can hold up under renewed scrutiny after back-to-back disappointments.
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