Elastic N.V. reports Q4 FY2026 results tomorrow with the Street in defensive mode — fresh target cuts arriving the morning before the print, and a stock that has punished bulls twice running after earnings.
The immediate setup is defined by analyst action on the day before results. TD Cowen trimmed its target to $60 from $65 this morning while holding a Hold rating. Cantor Fitzgerald cut to $59 from $66, also staying Neutral. Both moves land as the stock trades at $54.41 — suggesting those firms see limited near-term upside even relative to their own reduced estimates. The mean consensus target across the Street is $77.74, which implies substantial upside from current levels, but that figure is skewed by bullish outliers like Rosenblatt ($110) and Guggenheim ($106, trimmed from $116 last week). The more telling signal is directional: almost every analyst who has moved in the past three months has cut their target, even those keeping Buy ratings.
Options traders are not running scared, and that's a notable contrast with the analyst tone. The put/call ratio has eased to 0.14 — near a 52-week low of 0.12, and essentially in line with its 20-day average of 0.15. Call positioning continues to dominate. That aligns with the stock's strong one-month run: Elastic is up 17% over the past month to $54.41, even after a modest 0.7% dip on Tuesday. By comparison, close peers gained 5.3% on the day and is up 10% on the week — Elastic has broadly tracked the software sector recovery, but without breaking away from it.
Short interest tells a more cautious sub-story. SI has edged up to 5.2% of free float, a 17% build over the past month — a meaningful increase that has been building steadily since early May. The borrowing market, however, remains relaxed: cost to borrow is just 0.38% annualised, and availability is running at over 1,698% of short interest, meaning the lending pool is far from stressed. Bears have added positions, but they are not paying a premium to do so. The ORTEX short score sits at 42 — a mid-range reading that reflects neither an extreme squeeze setup nor unusual short conviction.
The historical pattern is the sharpest caution flag of all. The February 2026 print sent the stock down 10.2% on the day and a further 8.6% over the following week. The quarter before that produced a 14.1% one-day drop. EPS momentum scores are strong — ranking in the 92nd percentile on 30-day momentum — and forward EPS estimates have been revised sharply higher. The bull case rests on AI-search tailwinds and an expanding TAM. The bear case questions whether those tailwinds can translate into the sustained 20%-plus revenue growth that would justify a meaningful re-rating. Tomorrow's print is therefore less about whether Elastic is growing and more about whether management's commentary on cRPO and AI-driven deal activity signals an acceleration that finally breaks the pattern of post-earnings selling.
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