CAL enters its May 28 earnings window with an unusual mix of signals: short sellers have been trimming positions even as the stock sits 29% above its March lows, and options traders have swung from heavy hedging to their most bullish stance in over a year.
The most striking development this week is in options. Caleres now carries a put/call ratio of 0.97, running well below its 20-day average of 1.14 — nearly 1.5 standard deviations below the mean, the most call-skewed reading in recent memory and close to the 52-week low of 0.31. The contrast with March is stark: as recently as mid-March, the PCR stood above 1.47, reflecting heavy demand for downside protection. That protective demand has unwound almost entirely. Options traders are no longer hedging into the next print — they appear to be positioning for more upside.
Short interest tells a compatible story, though with some nuance. At 14.6% of the free float, shorts remain a meaningful presence — this is not a stock that lenders have given up on. But the direction of travel has softened. Short shares dropped nearly 5% over the week to around 4.95 million, extending a gradual retreat from the 5.2–5.4 million range seen through late March and mid-April. Importantly, borrow conditions remain easy. Availability is loose, with cost to borrow running at just 0.51% annually — well within normal range and actually down about 11% from a week earlier despite a small uptick on April 28. This is a market where shorts face no meaningful squeeze pressure. The ORTEX short score of 60.7, while elevated, has also eased from a recent high of 62.1 on April 17, reinforcing the picture of gradual short-side retreat.
The street picture is mixed but quietly constructive. The only recent analyst action came from Seaport Global in March, which raised its target to $16 while keeping a Buy rating following Caleres' Q4 earnings — a print that delivered a 21% one-day pop and a 23% five-day move, the last data point in the earnings history. The mean analyst target of $15 is close to the current price of $13.43, implying about 12% upside. At a trailing P/E of roughly 5.2x and EV/EBITDA near 6.7x, the stock remains cheap in absolute terms, though the price/book ratio of 0.59 reflects the structural pressure the footwear retail sector has faced. An EPS surprise factor score in the 90th percentile suggests the company has a strong track record of beating estimates — a relevant data point with Q1 results now four weeks away.
One signal worth watching is institutional accumulation. BlackRock added roughly 115,000 shares through to the end of March. Dimensional Fund Advisors added 65,000. Even FMR (Fidelity) — already the largest holder with 15% of shares — marginally added to its position. Against that, the insider side of the ledger is less encouraging: CEO John Schmidt and several other executives sold shares at prices between $9.25 and $10.95 in March, right before the stock's 29% recovery over the past month. The values involved are relatively small (Schmidt's combined sales totalled around $360,000), but the timing — selling near recent lows before a sharp rally — means those sells now carry more eyebrow-raising weight in retrospect.
The peer group spent the week under water. Close correlated names GAP and WSM both fell sharply — down 8.3% and 7.4% respectively on the week. SCVL dropped 2.2%. Against that backdrop, CAL's own weekly decline of just 3% looks relatively resilient. The May 28 annual meeting and Q1 earnings date (also May 28) now form the near-term focal point. Given the Q4 precedent — a 21% one-day move on results — how the options market reprices into that date, and whether the current bullish PCR holds, will be the clearest near-term read on how traders are actually positioned.
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