Lucid Group heads into its June 4 earnings with the borrow market having snapped shut again — erasing the brief thaw noted just days ago — while short interest climbs toward 19% of float and the Street has spent the past month cutting targets.
The most striking reversal is in availability. The May 21 note flagged a rare loosening, with availability climbing to 2.75% — the first meaningful opening in the lending pool since late April. That window has closed. Availability has collapsed back to 0.10%, meaning fewer than one share remains available for every thousand already lent out. The pool is, for practical purposes, fully consumed again. Cost to borrow is running at 11.4%, off its April peak above 20% but still elevated — and up more than 50% over the past month. Short interest itself has risen 36% in a month to just under 19% of free float, an ORTEX short score of 77.8 places the stock in the bottom few percent of the universe on this metric, and the factor rank for availability is first percentile. There is almost no room left in the lending pool for fresh shorts to be initiated.
Options positioning has softened slightly but remains structurally defensive. The put/call ratio is 1.31, a touch below its 20-day average of 1.37 — so options traders are marginally less hedged than they were earlier in May, but still running well above neutral. The 52-week PCR range runs from 0.10 to 2.42, placing the current level near the middle of that band. This is not a signal of aggressive directional conviction either way; it reads more as a holding pattern ahead of the release.
The Street has been moving in one direction. Multiple firms trimmed targets following the Q1 print on May 5-6. Citigroup, which initiated coverage in March with a $17 Buy, cut to $14 in mid-May while holding the rating. TD Cowen reduced its target from $10 to $7, and Benchmark downgraded outright to Hold. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Neutral at $14. The consensus is Sell, with a lone Underperform on the books. All cited the same cluster of concerns: Q1 delivery miss, suspended 2026 guidance, CEO transition uncertainty, and deteriorating gross margins from high fixed costs. The bull case rests on the liquidity runway extending to H2 2027 and the Uber robotaxi partnership as a long-term call option. The bear case is more immediate — no guidance, no visibility, and a luxury price point that caps volume.
The ownership picture adds one genuinely notable data point. Uber Technologies disclosed a position of 37.75 million shares — roughly 9.7% of the company — with a net addition of 24 million shares in the most recent filing period. That is a strategic stake tied to the robotaxi arrangement, not a passive index allocation. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund remains the dominant holder at 45.4%, unchanged. Morgan Stanley trimmed by 2.35 million shares in the same period, moving in the opposite direction to Uber. The concentrated ownership structure means the float is smaller than the headline share count implies, which amplifies the effect of the near-zero availability reading.
Earnings history adds context without comfort. The May 5 Q1 release sent the stock down 7.5% on the day and 10.2% over the following five days. The next event is confirmed for June 4 after the close. With availability back near zero, shorts already deeply embedded at 19% of float, and the Street clustered around cautious ratings, the setup heading into that print is worth watching on both sides — a positive surprise on deliveries or any guidance reinstatement would face a very thin borrow supply against a heavily committed short base.
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