Carnival Corporation has staged a sharp reversal this week, and the positioning data confirms the mood has shifted materially from the defensive crouch documented just days ago.
The stock gained 11.8% on the week to close at $26.71, clawing back a significant chunk of the 18% slide reported in last week's note. That rebound puts CCL back in line with its cruise peers — NCLH gained 12.1% on the week and LIND added 11.5%, suggesting the move is sector-wide rather than company-specific. RCL was more modest at 6.0%, but the direction was uniform across the group.
The options story is the starkest reversal. Last week's note flagged a put/call ratio running more than two standard deviations above its 20-day average — the most defensive positioning in months. That overhang has largely unwound. The PCR has dropped back to 1.04, barely below its 20-day average of 1.05, producing a z-score of just -0.16. Put demand has faded as the stock recovered; options traders are no longer reaching aggressively for downside protection. The 52-week PCR range runs from 0.92 to 1.48, and the current reading is squarely in the middle — neither defensive nor particularly bullish.
Short positioning has also eased, though the picture here is more nuanced. Short interest fell 3.9% on the week to around 4.0% of the free float — a level that remains 11% higher than a month ago. The lending market is extremely loose: availability is running at roughly 2,700% of short interest, meaning there are far more shares available to borrow than are currently borrowed. Borrowing costs have ticked higher — cost to borrow nearly doubled over the week to 0.70% — but that remains a historically low absolute level. The borrow spike is worth watching; it has risen 45% over the past month even as the stock swung wildly in both directions. For now, however, the overall lending picture does not suggest meaningful squeeze dynamics or conviction from active short sellers.
The Street is modestly cautious on valuation. Two analyst moves in the past week told slightly different stories: Truist Securities trimmed its target to $29 while keeping a Hold, while TD Cowen nudged its Buy target up to $34. The mean price target of $34 implies roughly 27% upside from current levels, with the stock trading at a P/E of 11.3x and EV/EBITDA of 8.5x. The bull case centres on return on capital climbing to over 10% and record revenues approaching $26 billion; bears point to a debt load still running at 3.6x net debt/EBITDA and sensitivity to fuel costs and consumer travel sentiment. The ORTEX short score of 33.5 ranks in the 58th percentile — neither extreme pressure nor absence of concern.
Insider activity from earlier this month adds a muted footnote. A cluster of directors sold small lots on May 11 — routine in size and collectively below $500,000. CFO David Bernstein sold roughly $218,000 worth on April 21. None of these carry high significance scores and none alter the fundamental narrative. The 90-day net insider position is modestly positive at $24 million, largely reflecting a stock award to CEO Josh Weinstein rather than open-market buying.
With next earnings confirmed for June 22, the distance between this week's sharp recovery and the upcoming print is the key tension to monitor — specifically whether the options market rebuilds a defensive skew as that date approaches, or whether the rally is sustained enough to carry into the report with positioning more neutral.
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