EastGroup Properties exits its May earnings week with the Street growing more constructive, Morgan Stanley making a fresh upward move, and short interest quietly building — a mix that puts the stock in an interesting spot heading into the summer.
The most notable development this week is from Morgan Stanley. The firm raised its price target on EGP to $231 from $215 — maintaining its Equal-Weight rating — the highest target in the recent analyst wave and the first major post-earnings revision. That move, filed on May 27, follows the pattern of broad upgrades that began after the prior quarter's print. Truist, Keybanc, RBC, and Baird all lifted targets in the days following April earnings, clustering in the $205–$215 range. The consensus mean has now risen to $214.47, against a closing price of $206.98. That puts the average target roughly 3.6% above the current price — a tighter gap than the 6% seen before the May 21 report, but the direction of travel on targets remains clearly upward. No firm has upgraded its rating outright. The bulls argue EastGroup's Sunbelt multi-tenant industrial portfolio, disciplined development pipeline, and durable logistics demand justify a premium. Bears counter that the current valuation already prices in the long-term growth story, leaving limited near-term upside at these levels.
Short interest has been building — but the scale matters for context. It has risen roughly 18% over the past month, reaching 4.0% of the free float. That is the sharpest move in the 30-day window visible in the data, driven mainly by a step-change in early May. At 4%, this is not heavy short conviction; it is modest repositioning. The ORTEX short score has drifted higher through the week, reaching 43.2 on May 26, up from 42.2 a week prior. That score sits in the lower quarter of the universe on a percentile basis, consistent with a stock that is more owned than shorted. Days to cover is 4.6, per the most recent FINRA data. Borrowing costs are low at 0.41% per annum and have oscillated in a tight 0.25–0.51% band for six weeks. None of this points to crowded short positioning.
Borrow availability is ample. With availability running at 1,644% of short interest — meaning there are more than sixteen shares available to lend for every one already borrowed — the lending market is loose. Even with the 19% tightening seen this week, availability remains well above the 52-week low of 977%. There is no squeeze pressure in the borrow market. Options positioning tells a similar, relaxed story: the put/call ratio has drifted down to 1.72 from above 2.2 in early May, very close to its 20-day mean of 1.83 and sitting near zero on the z-score. Hedging demand has eased as the stock has recovered.
EGP has gained 2.3% this week and 4.6% over the past month, closing at $206.98. Close peers FR and PLD — the two highest-correlated names — posted week gains of 4.1% and 3.3% respectively, slightly outpacing EGP. TRNO and STAG lagged with week moves of 1.4% and 0.9%, making EGP's gain broadly in line with the stronger end of the industrial REIT peer group. LINE was the week's standout at 6.7%, though it carries a much lower correlation to EGP's pattern.
Factor scores support the Street's cautious optimism. EPS momentum ranks in the 84th percentile over 30 days and the 71st over 90 days. EPS surprise sits in the 80th percentile — the company has a track record of beating estimates. The dividend score at the 90th percentile is another pillar of the bull case for income-oriented holders. Valuation scores are less of a tailwind: a P/E of 38x and EV/EBITDA of 22.2x reflect a market already paying for quality. The PE multiple has declined slightly over 30 days even as the price has risen, suggesting earnings estimates are moving up alongside the stock.
The next scheduled event is the Q2 earnings release on July 22. The question heading into that print is whether operating metrics — occupancy, development lease-up, and rent spreads — continue to justify the re-rating that the analyst community has already started to price in.
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