Procter & Gamble heads into the final stretch of its fiscal year with the Street still broadly bullish — but quietly trimming expectations — while the stock trades at a one-month low after shedding 3.5% over May.
The analyst picture captures the tension well. Following April's quarterly earnings, most firms held their ratings but adjusted targets in both directions. UBS and Wells Fargo moved higher, lifting their Buy and Overweight targets to $172 and $164 respectively, while JPMorgan trimmed its Overweight target to $162 from $165. The mean price target across coverage sits near $164, implying roughly 15% upside from the current $142.96 close. Barclays is the outlier at the sceptical end, holding an Equal-Weight with a $146 target — barely above where the stock is trading now. The overall message from the Street is constructive but not excited, with analysts nudging targets around earnings rather than making directional calls. (Note: the Benzinga bull/bear case data dates from late 2025 and is omitted here as it predates the most recent quarter.)
Valuation multiples have drifted lower over the past month, reflecting the price decline. The P/E has pulled back to around 20.5x, down roughly 0.75 turns over 30 days, and EV/EBITDA eased to ~15x. Neither reading screams cheap for a household staples name of this quality, but they represent the most accessible entry point for PG in recent months. The dividend score ranks in the 98th percentile against the universe — an exceptional reading that underscores why income-oriented holders rarely move on weakness. EPS momentum is less flattering: the 30-day reading ranks 28th percentile, and forward EPS growth estimates are under pressure, placing the 12-month forward YoY increase in the bottom quartile.
Short interest is barely worth noting at this level. PG's short float has crept up roughly 12% over the past month — from around 1.17% to 1.25% of the free float — but the absolute figure remains trivially low for a stock this size. Cost to borrow is negligible at 0.35%, and borrow availability is effectively unlimited: the lending pool holds over 1.7 billion shares available against fewer than 30 million borrowed. There is no short pressure here; the mild SI build looks more like hedging activity than a directional bet against the company. The ORTEX short score of 31.3 has been flat all month, consistent with that read.
Options positioning is neutral to slightly defensive. The put/call ratio of 0.87 runs just above its 20-day average of 0.85 — a z-score of 0.35, well within one standard deviation. Last week briefly saw the PCR touch its 52-week high near 1.00, but it has since retraced to a more balanced level. There is no unusual hedging activity in the options market, nor any sign of aggressive directional bets in either direction.
Institutional ownership tells a familiar story for a mega-cap staples name. BlackRock holds 8% of shares, Vanguard close to 10% across two entities, and State Street a further 4.3%. JP Morgan Asset Management added over 8.6 million shares in the most recent reporting period — the largest single incremental move among the top 15 holders. Most other passive and active managers are mildly adding rather than trimming, which reinforces the low-conviction but steady-hands character of PG's shareholder base. Insider activity from the visible record is limited to a cluster of routine executive sells in February at prices around $160–165, well above current levels — that gap is worth noting as the stock drifts below those execution prices.
The next earnings event is scheduled for 28 July. The April print saw the stock gain 1.8% on the day and finish the following week essentially flat — a muted, relief-type reaction after a period of macro-driven uncertainty. With the stock now sitting 13% below where executives were selling in February, the July print is less about whether PG grows and more about whether management can restore confidence in domestic category trends and the trajectory for SK-II in Greater China. Close peer CLX gained 3.7% on the week while CL finished roughly flat — PG's modest 1.2% weekly recovery trails that spread, suggesting some idiosyncratic softness that will need a fundamental catalyst to close.
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