Rigel Pharmaceuticals heads into the summer with a notable contradiction at its core: short sellers are pushing back in, yet the Street just raised its most bullish price targets in months.
Short interest has climbed back to its highest level in over six weeks. At 26.7% of the free float, it has recovered from a dip to 24.6% in mid-May and is now matching the late-April peak. The week-on-week increase of roughly 3.3% is steady rather than explosive — this looks more like a patient rebuild than a panic short. Borrow conditions do not suggest any friction in adding exposure: cost to borrow is a negligible 0.44%, and availability is wide at 278%, meaning roughly three shares are still available to lend for every two already borrowed. There is no squeeze pressure visible in the lending market. Options traders are similarly relaxed — the put/call ratio at 0.33 is marginally below its 20-day average of 0.34, and well off the 52-week high of 0.60, signalling no unusual demand for downside protection.
The Street's direction of travel is unambiguously bullish, and the most recent move is the most striking. Citigroup raised its target to $81 on May 13 — a sharp lift from $69 just a week earlier — after maintaining its Buy through both moves. HC Wainwright held its own Buy and $57 target this week. With the stock trading at $29.17, the mean analyst target of $53.20 implies roughly 82% upside, though the Citi target at $81 looks aggressive relative to current levels. Valuation offers some support for the bull case: the P/E is just under 8x and EV/EBITDA is around 5x, both at the low end for a commercial-stage biotech. The ORTEX EV/EBIT factor score ranks in the 88th percentile — the stock is cheap on an earnings basis relative to the universe. The short score of 72.6 ranks in the bottom 9th percentile, a reminder that bears are positioned heavily despite the valuation discount.
The institutional picture has seen some notable recent movement. Soleus Capital Management reported holding 968,000 shares as of May 6, with 958,000 of those being a new or near-new position — one of the largest single additions in the holder table. Armistice Capital added 444,000 shares through March. American Century added nearly 290,000 shares through April. The buyer activity is broad, with multiple managers adding simultaneously. The most recent insider activity, by contrast, was purely administrative — board members received stock awards on May 15, all at zero cost. A small open-market sale by an independent director in February at $36.36 is the only cash transaction in the recent record.
Earnings history adds a cautionary note to the setup. The last reported quarter, in early May, produced a one-day drop of roughly 9.7%. The same magnitude of decline appeared across three readings tied to that date, and the five-day loss settled at around 9.2%. The next earnings date is scheduled for August 4. That reaction pattern — a consistent post-release sell-off of approximately 10% — is the context shorts are betting on repeating, even as fundamental buyers argue the pipeline and low valuation justify a different outcome.
The tension heading into the summer is clear: an aggressive short base sitting on a cheap, cash-covered stock, with analysts lifting targets and institutions steadily adding. What to watch is whether the rising short interest continues to rebuild toward the late-April highs above 27% of the float, and whether the Citigroup $81 target revision attracts fresh fundamental buying that tests the bears' conviction before the August print.
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