TIGO ends the week with a 3.3% single-day drop to $83.01, yet the broader setup remains intact — a week-on-week gain of 2.6%, a JP Morgan target that now clears $100, and short sellers who have been cutting positions for most of May.
The short interest story has shifted materially over the past month. Bears built positions aggressively through late April and into early May, pushing short interest to a local peak above 4.3 million shares around May 8. Since then, shorts have retreated sharply — estimated short interest is now 3.3 million shares, or roughly 2.0% of free float, nearly back to late-April levels before the build. The lending market offers no distress signal: cost to borrow is barely above half a percent and has edged lower over the past week. Availability is loose at around 414% of current short interest, well above the 52-week floor of 131%. The borrow pool is ample and cheap — nothing here suggests squeeze mechanics are in play. Options positioning has nudged slightly more defensive, with the put/call ratio ticking up to 0.18 against a 20-day average of 0.16, but at 1.5 standard deviations above the mean, the move is modest and does not signal material fear.
The Street remains divided, but the gap between bulls and bears is widening in the bulls' favour. JP Morgan lifted its target from $86 to $100 last week, maintaining Overweight — the third upward revision from the firm in under a year. HSBC upgraded to Buy in March with an $89 target. Against those, Scotiabank's Andres Coello today nudged his target fractionally from $51.20 to $52.40 while keeping a Sector Underperform rating — a bear call that now sits nearly 40% below where the stock is actually trading. The consensus remains Buy. Valuation has been compressing on some measures: the P/E multiple has pulled back roughly 4 points over 30 days to about 14.4x, and EV/EBITDA has eased to 5.7x. EPS momentum is a standout — factor scores rank it in the 99th percentile on 30-day EPS momentum and 98th on 90-day, suggesting estimate revisions have been consistently positive. The forward earnings yield story supports the bull framing rather than the bear one.
Institutional ownership provides a notable anchor. MAYA SAS holds 44% of shares, providing a stable core. JP Morgan Asset Management added 691,000 shares in the most recent reporting period, BlackRock added 576,000, and William Blair built a new position of over 1.28 million shares. These are not trivial additions. On the insider side, the most recent disclosed trade was a CLO sale in February 2025 — too stale to read as a current signal.
The most recent earnings print, on May 12, produced a 4.4% one-day gain and a 3.1% five-day gain. The print before that, in February, moved 6.3% on the day before giving back roughly 2% over the following week. The next event is scheduled for July 21 — the pattern so far is constructive, but those reactions came against a backdrop of a sharply rising stock. The key tension then will be whether the acquisition-driven growth story justifies a multiple that, while compressing, has expanded considerably alongside the year-to-date gain.
Watch how short interest behaves into July: if the May build-and-retreat pattern repeats ahead of the next print, the speed of any subsequent short cover will say more about conviction than the headline SI level alone.
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