POSCO Holdings has found its footing this week, recovering a modest 0.3% to ₩442,000 after last week's sharp 8% decline — but the rebound is shallow, and the peer group is sending mixed signals.
The recovery has been fragile rather than convincing. A single-day slip of 1.2% on Tuesday underlines that buyers aren't yet in control. Last week's note flagged the stock giving back nearly half its April-May rally in one move; this week that pattern has paused, but not reversed. The stock remains well below the ₩480,000–₩490,000 range implied by the analyst consensus mean price target of ₩519,476 — a gap of roughly 17% that suggests the Street still sees value here, though the consensus is unchanged with five outperform ratings and no recent target revisions on record.
The peer picture is more interesting than POSCO's own price action this week. TCC Steel edged up 3% on the week, providing a modest counterpoint to POSCO's flat performance. But Japanese peer 5706 — a highly correlated name — surged 13.6% over the same period, a divergence worth noting given that correlation runs close to 58%. Korean names like and both fell 7% and 3.1% respectively, suggesting the broader Korean steel complex remains under pressure even as Japanese peers rebounded. , POSCO's closest Korean correlate at 77.9%, was essentially flat on the week, down just 0.2%.
The lending market has loosened dramatically — and that shift is the most structurally notable development of the past two weeks. Availability has expanded to 4,067%, up sharply from around 1,200% in early May when availability was at its tightest level of the past year. In plain terms, the short-selling capacity that was constrained a fortnight ago has opened up significantly — there are now roughly 40 shares available to borrow for every one currently borrowed. Borrow costs have followed the same direction, falling nearly 39% on the week to 0.87% APR, down from a spike above 1.4% in early May. With short interest already thin at well under 0.5% of the free float, the loosening availability reflects returned borrows rather than fresh short-selling demand.
The factor backdrop is genuinely constructive and distinguishes POSCO from a simple value trap. EPS momentum ranks in the 87th percentile on a 30-day basis and the 67th on a 90-day view, while the EPS surprise score sits at the 81st percentile — the company has been beating estimates with consistency. Forward EPS growth expectations rank in the 86th percentile year-on-year, and the analyst recommendation differential scores in the 93rd percentile, reflecting a materially more bullish Street stance than the broader universe. The ORTEX short score has drifted gently lower through May — from 27.5 in mid-month to 26.7 now — consistent with the easing borrow pressure and declining short interest. The valuation remains undemanding: P/B near 0.59 and EV/EBITDA around 6.8, though the P/E of 15.6 has compressed about 1.6 turns over the past 30 days, reflecting the earnings upgrade cycle running ahead of price recovery.
The next scheduled earnings release falls on 23 July. At the last quarterly print in late April, the stock jumped 7% on the day and extended to a 14% five-day gain — a reaction that preceded last week's sharp reversal. Whether the July release follows a similar pattern will depend largely on whether the steel pricing environment and battery-materials earnings trajectory can sustain the consensus upgrade cycle that has driven factor scores higher all month.
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