United Airlines Holdings has reversed sharply from the sell-off that defined last week's note, gaining 19% in five sessions to close at $105.92 — a complete rebuke of the distress pricing that had the stock at $89 just days ago.
The scale of the reversal puts the previous week's discount in stark relief. A PE of roughly 9.5x and an EV/EBITDA near 6.2x still look cheap for a carrier with an EPS surprise factor score at the 91st percentile — the company has consistently beaten estimates. UBS moved immediately to reflect the new reality: analyst Atul Maheswari raised his price target to $148 on May 26, up from $139, maintaining his Buy rating. The consensus mean target is $130.75, which the stock has now nearly reached after the rally. Most active coverage remains constructive — Buy or Outperform ratings dominate — and the Street's direction of travel has been upward since BMO raised to $130 in late April. The gap between price and target has compressed sharply this week, but UBS is calling for another 40% from current levels.
Short interest tells a quiet story here. At 4.6% of the free float, short positioning is modest and has been drifting lower — down roughly 7% over the past month. The week's change is essentially flat, a slight uptick of 0.2% that barely registers. Borrowing costs remain very low at 0.36%, and availability is extremely loose at 2,724% — meaning there are roughly 27 shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out. That's well clear of the 52-week tightest reading of 1,705%, confirming there is no squeeze dynamic or meaningful borrow pressure in the lending market. The ORTEX short score is a steady 36, sitting in the lower half of the universe — not a stock that bears are piling into.
Options positioning has turned less defensive as the price has recovered. The put/call ratio eased to 0.98, now slightly below its 20-day average of 1.04. That's a notable shift from mid-month, when the PCR was running at 1.21–1.24 and options traders were clearly hedging downside. The z-score of -0.63 confirms the move is mild rather than euphoric — call demand has picked up, but the positioning is not stretched in either direction.
The sector rally has been broad. Close peers DAL and AAL gained 13% and 20% respectively on the week, while ALK added 17%. UAL's 19% move sits comfortably in the middle of the peer pack — this is a sector re-rating, not a UAL-specific squeeze. LUV lagged at 10%, suggesting the premium international carriers caught the stronger bid. The previous week's note flagged that the Street had not flinched despite the sell-off — that conviction has now been validated by the price action, not contradicted by it.
The next earnings event is scheduled for July 14. With the stock having covered most of the distance to the consensus price target in a single week, the July print becomes the next test of whether the summer booking strength flagged in management's guidance actually materialises in the numbers.
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