QXO heads into the week with a striking lending-market setup: short interest has nearly doubled since mid-April while the supply of shares to borrow has all but vanished.
The borrow market tells the headline story. Availability has collapsed to just 0.16% — fewer than two shares remain available for every thousand already lent out. Six weeks ago, in mid-April, availability was well above 100%, meaning supply comfortably exceeded demand. That has inverted entirely. Every share in the lending pool is effectively committed, the tightest reading in at least the past year. The cost to borrow has risen roughly 33% over the past week to 2.9%, though it remains far below the 5%-plus levels seen briefly in late April — the borrow is expensive relative to where it was, not yet stratospheric. Short interest itself has been building relentlessly: SI % of FF has climbed from around 9% in early April to 15.4% now, a near-doubling in six weeks driven by a particularly sharp leg higher in mid-May. The ORTEX short score of 79.8 ranks in the bottom 1% of the universe, reflecting extreme short-side positioning.
Options traders, by contrast, are showing no special alarm. The put/call ratio is essentially flat at 0.61, right in line with its 20-day average and showing a z-score close to zero. That's a notable contrast with the lending data — options positioning is calm and well within its annual range, while the borrow market screams tightness. These two readings don't tell the same story, and that divergence is worth noting. The stock itself rebounded 7.6% on the week to $17.16, yet it remains down more than 18% over the past month.
On the Street, the conviction is still bullish in direction but the targets keep falling. Multiple analysts trimmed numbers following the May earnings report: Citigroup's Anthony Pettinari lowered to $28, Baird cut to $30, and Stephens came down to $26 — all within the past two weeks, all maintaining positive ratings. The consensus mean target is around $31.50, implying roughly 80% upside to current levels, but that gap reflects post-April dislocation rather than fresh enthusiasm. The bull case centres on the pending TopBuild acquisition and Brad Jacobs' $50bn revenue ambition through disciplined M&A rollup. Bears point to integration risk, rising leverage, and the margin pressure that typically accompanies aggressive tech-and-data investment during a buildout phase. EV/EBITDA of 9.3x has compressed roughly 2x over the past 30 days, which at least brings valuation somewhat more in line as the stock reprices.
The institutional register shows no signs of panic: Orbis holds 10.2% with no change reported at last filing, while Invesco added 3.9 million shares in Q1. Vanguard entities appear to have initiated or built sizable new positions. Fred Alger added 6.5 million shares in Q1, a meaningful commitment. The insider register is quieter — the May activity was director awards at zero cost, carrying no economic signal. The last meaningful open-market transaction was CEO Brad Jacobs selling 928,000 shares at $25.52 in January, when the stock was well above current levels.
The earnings history adds texture. The past four events include a -7.7% single-day drop in May, a -4.2% move following the Q1 release, and a prior quarter that saw a 3.2% gain on the day but gave it back over the following week. The next event is flagged for mid-August. With availability this tight and short interest running near its multi-month peak, the mechanics of the lending market — rather than the fundamental story — are the dominant watchpoint between now and then.
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