ABBV heads into late May with a notable divergence: options traders have turned more bullish than they've been all year, even as short sellers quietly rebuild positions and the pipeline debate grows louder.
The options signal is the clearest shift this week. The put/call ratio has fallen to 0.95 — roughly 1.5 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 1.04. That is the least defensive reading in the PCR's 52-week range, which runs from 0.62 to 1.13. For most of April and early May, the ratio held comfortably above 1.0, meaning puts dominated. The sharp rotation toward calls over the past two weeks suggests participants are positioning for upside rather than hedging against downside. That is a meaningful reversal of tone.
Short interest tells a quieter story, and a slightly contradictory one. At 1.25% of the free float, the short position is not large enough to constitute serious crowding. It is, however, climbing. Short interest rose roughly 11.5% over the past month, reaching around 22.2 million shares. The week-on-week change is essentially flat, but the one-month trend is a steady rebuild from the low 20-million range seen in mid-April. Borrow conditions remain very easy — availability is at the maximum reading in the data, reflecting an enormous lending pool relative to the current short position — so the rising SI reflects genuine bearish conviction rather than a technical squeeze-driven exit. Cost to borrow, while still cheap at 0.40%, has crept up 21% over the past week, the highest level in about a month. That is consistent with incremental fresh demand for borrows, not a forced unwind.
The Street is broadly constructive, though recent target activity shows some caution creeping in. Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight and lifted its target to $278 in late April, while Piper Sandler bumped its target to $298. The mean analyst target of $252.90 implies roughly 19% upside from the current $213.12 price. EPS momentum has turned positive — ORTEX's 30-day forward EPS momentum score ranks at the 61st percentile, while the 12-month forward EPS growth score ranks at the 99th percentile. The analyst recommendation divergence score also sits at the 91st percentile, indicating analysts are significantly more positive on ABBV than average. The PE multiple runs at about 14.2x, undemanding for a company of this quality profile. The bull case centres on Skyrizi, Botox, and Venclexta continuing to grow and offset Humira erosion; the bear case flags modest Vyalev prescription growth and questions whether the Cerevel and ImmunoGen acquisitions can fully absorb the revenue decline from Humira and Imbruvica as competition in immunology and oncology intensifies.
Among institutional holders, Capital Research added over 11.5 million shares in the period to April 30 — a material increase that stands out against a largely static top-ten. JP Morgan Asset Management added 1.8 million shares, while Morgan Stanley trimmed its holding by 2.2 million. The overall holder count of 443 institutions reflects broad ownership. Insider activity in May consisted entirely of routine director awards with no cash consideration; the 90-day net value of $42.2 million in insider acquisitions is worth noting in context, though the May transactions carry no significance.
The most recent earnings print — Q1 2026 on April 29 — delivered a 6.9% single-day gain and a further 3.7% over the following five days, one of the stronger post-earnings reactions in recent memory. The next catalyst is Q2 results, currently scheduled for July 27. Between now and then, the key tension to watch is whether options positioning stays bullish while short interest continues its slow rebuild — and whether Vyalev prescription trends in coming weeks give the bear case any harder numbers to lean on.
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