BOX enters the post-earnings stretch with an interesting split: options traders are almost entirely positioned for upside, while short sellers — sitting on 9.1% of the free float — have barely moved.
The clearest signal this week came from the options market. The put/call ratio is running at just 0.13, barely above its 52-week low of 0.09 and well beneath its 20-day average. That is call-dominated positioning taken to an extreme — investors were loading up on upside ahead of the May 26 quarterly print, and that conviction hasn't unwound. The move reads less like speculative froth and more like a sector-wide rotation into software names that have shown consistent fundamental delivery. Box's EPS surprise score ranks in the 82nd percentile, and the Street has had its expectations reset to the upside after months of conservative targets.
Short interest tells a less accommodating story. At 9.1% of the free float, short sellers are not capitulating. The figure ticked up roughly 2.3% on the week, closing back toward the mid-May peak of around 10.2% after a brief dip. Importantly, the borrow market offers no sign of stress: availability is an exceptionally loose 1,354% of short interest, meaning shares-to-borrow dwarf the current short position by more than thirteen times. Cost to borrow is 0.44% — essentially free money for a bearish view. That combination tells you shorts are not being squeezed out; they're comfortable, patient, and have ample room to add. The tension between call-heavy options positioning and a dug-in short base is the setup worth watching.
The Street's response to the print has been incrementally positive but measured. Both UBS and Citi raised their price targets today — UBS moved from $28 to $29 while keeping a Neutral rating, and Citi lifted from $36 to $37 while maintaining Buy. DA Davidson held firm at $45 Buy. The consensus mean target of $32.50 implies roughly 27% upside from the current $25.62 close, a gap that has persisted for months without closing. The bull case rests on Box's AI-powered content platform, its penetration of 69% of Fortune 500 companies, and improving net revenue retention. The bear case questions whether those dynamics justify the valuation — the EV/EBITDA multiple is around 10x, but the bear-side concern is that free-trial developer programs and competitive pressure from broader cloud players may dilute the retention story before management can prove out its 10-15% revenue growth targets.
Insider activity adds a quietly cautionary note. CFO and co-founder Dylan Smith sold approximately $592,000 worth of shares in two tranches on May 11, while COO Olivia Nottebohm sold around $462,000 across May 1 and May 8. Both transactions appear to be part of pre-arranged plans based on the modest trade-significance scores, but the timing — in the days ahead of the earnings release — is worth noting. The 90-day net insider position registers a small positive at roughly $6.1 million, driven by stock awards in April, not open-market purchases. Founder CEO Aaron Levie barely moved his holding. The insider tone is passive rather than bullish.
Among the closest peers, WDAY dropped 3.8% on the week and ADBE fell nearly 6%, making BOX's flat weekly performance look relatively resilient. CRM slipped 0.2%, while ASAN was essentially flat. BOX's ability to hold the week near unchanged — down just 0.3% — despite the broader software sector softening is a modest positive for the relative-strength picture, though the 91-day relative strength score remains deeply in negative territory from prior months of underperformance.
The next earnings date is June 25. Between now and then, the key variable is whether the 9%-plus short position gradually unwinds on a continued re-rating narrative, or whether the lack of any squeeze pressure in the borrow market keeps bears patient through the summer.
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