TIMS3 enters the final week of May having clawed back roughly 1.5% after a brutal month — shares are down 14% over 30 days to BRL 22.55, and the shadow of a sharp post-earnings sell-off still hangs over the setup.
The dominant story this week is the aftermath of the May earnings event. The most recent print triggered a 13.2% single-day decline and a 15.9% five-day loss — unusually large moves for a mature telco. That reaction stands in contrast to the February print, which sent the stock up nearly 9% on the day. The next earnings window opens July 28, and the pattern suggests the market treats each TIM release as a genuine event risk rather than a routine update. The 20% round-trip between the two most recent results captures precisely how bifurcated sentiment has become on the name.
The factor scores reinforce the defensive character of the trade. TIM ranks in the 99th percentile on dividend score and in the 97th percentile on both short-score rank and days-to-cover rank — signals that read more as "income-oriented and stable" than "actively contested." The EV/EBIT positioning ranks at 82, and the EPS momentum over the past 30 days registers at 71, suggesting forward estimates have been revised upward recently even as the stock fell. The earnings yield implied by valuation sits at approximately 9.1%, while the stock trades on roughly 10.9x trailing earnings and 4.4x EV/EBITDA — compact multiples for a Bovespa-listed telecom with a market cap just above $10.7 billion.
Short positioning is essentially absent. Short interest is only 0.002% of the free float — a level so low it carries no signal about directional intent. Borrow availability is effectively unconstrained, with more than 12.5 million shares available versus a negligible number on loan. Cost to borrow has drifted all the way down from above 9% last December to below 0.75% now, reversing a months-long squeeze in the lending market. That collapse in borrowing cost tells a straightforward story: whatever pressure drove elevated borrow demand late in 2025 has fully dissipated. The short score of 25.3 — placing TIM in the 97th percentile for low short pressure — confirms the lending market sees no meaningful crowding here.
On the institutional side, the parent TIM Brasil Serviços e Participações holds 67.5% of shares, leaving a thin free float for external investors. Among that float, BlackRock added roughly 3 million shares as of late April, and Boston Partners added just over 3 million shares over the same period. Neither move is large in absolute terms, but both represent active additions rather than passive drift — worth noting given the stock's weak one-month tape. The CIO's modest open-market sale of 8,200 shares in May at BRL 4.42 (note: this appears to reflect a different share-class price and may involve a restricted or bonus share program rather than the ordinary TIMS3 line) carries a trade significance score of only 3 and does not change the ownership read.
With the next event scheduled for July 28, the key variable is whether the current recovery can close the gap to the analyst consensus target of BRL 27.10 — implying roughly 20% upside from today's close — or whether the stock stalls out as earnings-season caution reasserts itself heading into the summer.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open TIMS3 on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
