Opendoor Technologies enters the week with a fresh narrative catalyst: the iBuying platform was selected for inclusion in the Russell 3000 Index, effective after market close on June 26. That announcement drove a jump in shares on Wednesday. Yet the stock closed the prior session at $4.48 — down 19% on the month and still carrying 17% of its float sold short. The Russell bump is real, but it lands against a persistently bearish positioning backdrop.
The short interest story has been building quietly for weeks. Short positions climbed from roughly 125 million shares in late April to 131 million now — a 3.8% rise over the month — pushing SI to 17% of free float. That's a high load for a stock priced below $5. The ORTEX short score has held in a tight range around 63 throughout May, steady rather than spiking, suggesting the bears aren't rushing to cover. Cost to borrow, however, tells a more relaxed story: at just 0.51%, borrow is essentially free, and with availability running at 219%, there are more than two shares still available in the lending pool for every one already borrowed. Shorts face no squeeze mechanics on the borrow side — they're simply positioned, at low cost, and waiting.
Options traders are not hedging; they're leaning into the upside. The put/call ratio has drifted down to 0.21, roughly 1.6 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.23. For a stock with nearly one-in-five shares short, that is a notable divergence: short sellers are dug in while options flow tilts call-heavy. That contrast — structural short positioning against near-term bullish options activity — is the most interesting tension in the setup right now.
Insider activity adds a layer worth watching. CEO Kaz Nejatian bought 100,000 shares at $4.88 on May 11, spending roughly $488,000 of his own capital. That follows a pattern of executive buying at current levels, with the CEO also buying 125,000 shares at $8.04 in November 2025. Net insider activity over the past 90 days shows a net purchase of around 259,000 shares valued at $1.2 million, even as CFO Christy Schwartz sold 74,000 shares mid-May — a smaller, likely routine disposal. The CEO buying into weakness is the signal; the CFO selling is the noise.
The Street's view is mixed, and some of the most recent formal analyst data is a few weeks old. Alliance Global Partners initiated coverage with a Buy rating and an $8 price target in late April — roughly 79% above the current price. That stands in sharp contrast to the prevailing cluster of Sell and Underperform ratings from Citigroup, KBW, and Zelman, whose targets from late 2025 ranged between $1 and $2 and now look stale given the stock has traded well above those levels. The mean consensus target of $4.82 is closer to current prices, but the wide dispersion reflects deep disagreement about whether Opendoor's iBuying model can achieve durable profitability. The EV/EBITDA multiple is nominally a sky-high 147x, but adjusted EBITDA is only just turning positive — the multiple is compressing as the company edges toward breakeven on that metric. Factor scores offer a nuanced read: the company ranks in the 94th percentile for EPS surprise history, yet EPS momentum over the past 30 and 90 days is in the bottom decile, signalling that beat history hasn't translated into positive estimate revisions.
Earnings are scheduled for June 11. The last print, on May 7, drove an 8.2% single-day decline and an 18% drop over the following five days — a pattern that shows how little margin for error the stock has on results. The Russell rebalancing on June 26 introduces forced passive buying just two weeks after that print. What to watch is whether the index-inclusion demand absorbs enough supply to shift the technical picture before the next earnings reaction plays out.
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