Gulfport Energy closed Tuesday at $172.24 — down 8.1% on the week and off 8.2% for the month — as a broad sell-off in Appalachian gas names dragged the stock to its lowest level of the past three months.
The most significant development this week came from the Street, not the tape. Mizuho analyst Nitin Kumar upgraded GPOR to Outperform this morning, lifting his target from $251 to $252. That reverses his own Neutral rating from just three weeks ago, when Mizuho had merely nudged the target up by $3 after Q1 earnings. The upgrade arrives while the stock is trading more than 40% below the new target — a gap that reflects either a compelling entry point or the depth of the gas market's current malaise, depending on which side of the debate you sit. Elsewhere on the Street, Truist Securities trimmed its Hold target to $219 from $230 earlier in May, and UBS cut its Buy target to $245 from $260 in April, leaving the consensus price at roughly $242 — still implying around 40% upside from current levels.
The bull case centres on production momentum: oil output has grown from roughly 550 barrels per day to over 6,100 over two years, and NGL volumes have doubled to around 5,000 BPD, all within the Appalachian basin. The bear case is harder to dismiss right now. Midstream constraints and limited pipeline capacity have capped the company's ability to capitalise on gas demand cycles. Productivity per adjusted barrel has underwhelmed for six consecutive quarters, and the stock's year-to-date decline is deeper than the broader E&P sector. The factor data adds nuance: EV/EBIT ranks in the 94th percentile of the universe, the P/E has compressed to around 6.2x, and EV/EBITDA has drifted down to 3.8x — the stock looks inexpensive. The problem is that cheap valuation ranks (EPS 12-month forward year-over-year increase at the 13th percentile) point to a market that sees limited near-term earnings growth, not a rerating opportunity.
Positioning in the lending market is genuinely relaxed. Short interest is modest at roughly 4% of the free float — up about 2% over the past month, but far from alarming. Availability is exceptionally wide at over 2,600%, meaning borrowable shares vastly outnumber those already shorted. That places no squeeze pressure on the setup whatsoever. Cost to borrow has ticked up 57% over the past week to around 0.48%, but that is still well within normal territory for an E&P of this size. The ORTEX short score sits at 37.9 — near the lower end of its recent range — and has been drifting down all week, consistent with a market that is not leaning on GPOR as a short idea despite the price action.
Options traders are more cautious. The put/call ratio came in at 1.03 on Tuesday, meaningfully above its 20-day average of 0.85. The reading is not at an extreme — the 52-week high was 1.12 — but it has held above 1.0 for five consecutive sessions. That pattern started in mid-May, just before and after the Q1 earnings drop. After its May 6 report, the stock fell 8.4% on the day and 8.3% over the following five sessions. The next print is scheduled for August 4.
The institutional picture carries one thread worth watching. Silver Point Capital, which holds roughly 14.5% of shares outstanding and also has board representation, sold over 844,000 shares in the most recent quarter — cutting its position materially in early March at prices around $204-$213. With the stock now trading at $172, that exit looks well-timed. Whether Silver Point continues to reduce its stake is worth monitoring closely; as a 10% owner with board influence, any further reported sales would carry real informational weight for the positioning debate ahead of the August earnings date.
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