SoFi Technologies is three weeks from its June 17 earnings print, and the borrow market has just moved to its tightest level of the past year — a notable shift from the easy lending conditions that prevailed through most of May.
The lending-side story is the most concrete development this week. Availability has dropped to 98%, down sharply from 147% last week and from readings above 180% in early May — the tightest the pool has been in the past 52 weeks. That tightening has coincided with a 37% jump in cost to borrow over the week, from 0.39% to 0.53%. Neither figure is alarming in absolute terms — borrowing SOFI remains cheap — but the directional move is worth tracking. Short interest has also edged higher, now at 14.1% of the free float, up roughly 1% on the week, with official FINRA data showing 173 million shares short as of mid-May. That's an elevated base for a consumer finance name, and the incremental build suggests shorts aren't covering ahead of the print.
Options traders remain cautious. The put/call ratio is running at 0.52 — more than 2.35 standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.45. This is the same elevated defensive posture flagged in Tuesday's note, and it hasn't unwound. The PCR has been stuck near this level since the start of the week, against a prior period where it ran consistently in the 0.43–0.44 range. The 52-week high on the PCR is 0.68, so the current level isn't at an extreme, but the persistence of the elevation is more notable than any single-day spike.
The Street has pulled back its targets but hasn't abandoned the bull case. Since the April 29 earnings disappointment — when the stock fell 12% on the day — analysts at UBS, TD Cowen, Needham, Citigroup, and Truist all trimmed price objectives, landing in a range of $17–$30. The mean target is $21, still 31% above the current price of $15.98. Goldman Sachs lowered to $20 in April and holds Neutral. The direction of travel has been uniformly lower on targets, yet only one firm in the visible recent changes moved to an outright hold from a buy. Bulls point to 43% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1, guidance for $4.66 billion in net revenue for FY26, and the Galileo platform as a durable earnings driver. Bears focus on credit cycle exposure, capital markets funding dependency, and margin pressure from competition.
The CEO's buying pattern is the clearest counter-signal in the data. Anthony Noto purchased roughly 15,500 shares in each of two back-to-back weeks in early May, spending approximately $250,000 each time at prices between $15.73 and $16.00. Those purchases are the standout item in the insider record — the surrounding activity is routine sell-side awards and EVP share sales, none of it directionally meaningful. Net insider activity over 90 days is positive at roughly 876,000 shares. The stock is currently trading right back in the zone where the CEO bought.
The last earnings print — a 12% one-day decline on April 29 — is the clearest historical reference point for the June 17 setup. Peer performance this week offers a mixed backdrop: UPST gained 9.6% and DAVE rose 3.7%, while DFDV fell 11.7%. SOFI's 4.9% weekly gain has partially closed the gap, but the stock remains down 13% over the past month.
With availability at a 52-week low and the PCR holding elevated into a scheduled June 17 print, the key question for the next three weeks is whether the borrow market continues to tighten — and whether the CEO's open-market buying draws any institutional follow-through.
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