SentinelOne heads into its May 28 earnings print with analysts freshly upgrading targets, the stock up 30% in a month, and the lending market as loose as it has been all year — a setup that leaves little room for positive surprise to do additional work.
The analyst story has moved quickly and in one direction. Multiple firms lifted targets in the days before the print: Cantor Fitzgerald raised to $24 from $18 this morning maintaining Overweight, Jefferies moved to $24 from $20 on Tuesday, and Oppenheimer raised to $21. That cluster of upgrades is a pre-earnings endorsement, yet it has already been absorbed by the market. The consensus mean of $19.15 now sits less than 4% above the $18.56 close, meaning the stock has largely caught up to where the Street was pointing. Bulls point to 20% revenue growth, rising multi-product adoption, and management's guidance for a 6 percentage point ARR acceleration in FY27. Bears flag five consecutive quarters of gross margin decline, a projected 390 basis point operating margin drop into Q1 FY27, and competitive pressure from Microsoft and CrowdStrike. Wells Fargo and Barclays, both holding Equal-Weight ratings, raised targets to $16 and $19 respectively — constructive enough to lift numbers, but not to change their cautious stance.
Positioning is conspicuously relaxed into the report. Short interest is 7.4% of the free float — meaningful but essentially flat on the week, down just 0.6% over seven days after a 9.7% build over the past month. The borrow market is wide open: availability has expanded to 1,448%, up from around 1,260% just two weeks ago, meaning there is roughly 14 times as much stock available to lend as there is currently short. Cost to borrow is a negligible 0.41%. Nothing in the lending data suggests bears are pressing into the catalyst. The ORTEX short score of 45.4 is middling, ranking in the 31st percentile — not a heavily shorted name by any relative measure.
Options confirm the same picture. The put/call ratio of 0.18 is near its 52-week low of 0.16 and barely distinguishable from its 20-day average. Calls dominate by an overwhelming margin. This is not a crowd hedging into uncertainty — it is a market tilted decisively toward upside participation. The 90-day EPS momentum factor ranks in the 87th percentile, reflecting the same underlying earnings-revision tailwind that has been pulling targets higher.
The institutional ownership picture adds one note of caution. The most recent insider data from early May shows CEO Tomer Weingarten selling roughly 230,000 shares on May 4 at $15.32, generating approximately $3.5 million. The Acting CFO and Chief Legal Officer also sold in the same window. Those trades were made with the stock well below current levels, and at low significance scores, but the direction is one-way — no insider buying appears in the 90-day record, with net sales of $8.6 million over the period. Weingarten still holds around 6.1 million shares, so these look like plan-driven sales rather than a conviction short, but they are worth noting as the stock trades nearly 20% above where he was selling three weeks ago.
Earnings history is thin but directionally consistent: the last print, in March, produced a 2.5% next-day gain and held a 2.8% five-day move. The setup tonight is materially different — the stock is 30% higher than it was a month ago, targets have already been raised, and calls dominate positioning. The question heading into the print is less whether SentinelOne can beat estimates and more whether the guidance on operating margins and ARR growth is strong enough to justify a stock that has already priced in a good deal of the good news.
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