Joby Aviation has put in a striking 15% week and is up 35% over the past month — yet the company's founder is selling into every leg of the move. That tension between surging price and persistent insider supply frames the whole setup heading into next week's earnings.
The insider story is the most compelling angle right now. CEO JoeBen Bevirt sold 421,019 shares on May 15 alone — collecting roughly $4.4 million at $10.38 — after selling a further 460,981 shares across two transactions on April 15 at $9.03. That's nearly $9 million raised by the founder and CEO in roughly six weeks, all on a planned-sale basis. Other executives are moving too: Eric Allison sold $748K worth on May 6, and the company's Chief Legal Officer trimmed in April. On a net 90-day basis the insider register shows approximately $9.9 million in net selling. Founders selling through a pre-planned programme is routine housekeeping — but the volume and consistency of Bevirt's sales into a rising stock is something to monitor.
Short positioning adds context to the bull story. SI % FF runs at roughly 13.4% of the free float, up from about 12% at the start of March. The raw shares short have been edging lower week-on-week — down about 0.7% over the past five days — but that's marginal, and the structural short base remains substantial. The borrow market, however, is notably relaxed. Availability is around 99%, meaning roughly one share is available to borrow for every one already lent out, which is well within the normal range. Cost to borrow is only 0.58% — near its lowest level of the past 30 days and down 9% over that stretch. A relaxed borrow environment suggests shorts are not under pressure; they have room to add rather than cover.
Options positioning tells a bullish story. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.30, roughly 1.7 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.35, and the lowest reading of the past year. That reflects heavy call-side demand — traders are buying upside, not hedging downside. With earnings confirmed for June 2, the options-market lean is decisively toward further gains.
On the Street, the picture is split between cautious neutrals and a stubborn bull. Following the May 5 earnings print — when the stock jumped over 18% in a single session — Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-Weight but trimmed its target from $15 to $13, and Canaccord cut its target from $15.50 to $11.50 while staying at Hold. Needham stood apart, reiterating Buy at $18 and holding that target firm. JP Morgan remains at Underweight with a $7 target. The consensus mean price target is $11.12 — almost exactly where the stock is now — which suggests the Street as a whole has largely priced in the recent rally. Goldman Sachs initiated at Sell with a $10 target in December 2025 and there is no indication that view has changed. The bear case rests on certification risk, undefined timelines, and a pre-revenue model still burning cash; the EV/EBITDA multiple of -15x underlines that every dollar of value here is a bet on a future that hasn't arrived yet. The book-to-market ratio has risen to 7.4x — up nearly 2x over the past 30 days — reflecting how fast the rally has moved valuations.
Factor scores are similarly bifurcated. The EPS momentum readings are eye-catching: the 30-day EPS momentum ranks in the 97th percentile of the universe, and the 90-day reading is in the 86th. Those suggest a genuine upward revision cycle in forward estimates. Short score, at 67, ranks in the 7th percentile — flagging that the bearish positioning is well above average. The ORTEX combined score is 66.9, but the short-score component is pulling hard in the other direction.
Among correlated peers, the week's moves are instructive. AAL jumped 20%, ALK gained 17%, and DAL rose 13% — a broad airline rally that carried Joby along for the ride. Joby's 15% gain matches the group rather than exceeds it, suggesting this week's move is more macro-driven tailwind than Joby-specific re-rating.
The next focal point is the June 2 earnings print. The prior two results saw intraday moves of 15-19% and five-day follow-through of 18-27%. With a call-heavy options market, a thin borrow cushion for shorts to absorb bad news, and a CEO still selling above $10, the setup heading into that report is anything but quiet.
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