AMX B heads into the week with a split narrative: shorts have been quietly building positions for the past month, while Scotiabank just trimmed its target — even as JPMorgan moved the other way less than two weeks ago.
The short position is small but the direction of travel is the story. Short Interest % of Free Float has climbed from 0.13% in mid-April to 0.18% now — a near 40% rise in six weeks. In absolute terms that remains a negligible level, but the consistent weekly additions suggest a deliberate, if modest, directional bet against the stock. The ORTEX short score of 27.5 is low, confirming this is nowhere near a crowded short, but the drift higher is worth noting as context for any dip buyers.
The lending market offers no pressure in either direction. Availability is exceptional — roughly 2,450% of outstanding short interest, meaning there are more than 24 shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out. That is well above even the 52-week trough of around 1,011%, itself a perfectly loose reading. Cost to borrow has edged up about 13% over the past month to just under 1%, but it remains near historic lows for this name. There is no squeeze dynamic here. Shorts face no cost or supply friction.
The analyst picture is where the tension sharpens. JPMorgan maintained a Neutral rating on May 14 but lifted its target to $30 — a sign the Street's base case still holds some upside relative to the current MXN 22.50 close. Then, on May 27, Scotiabank held its Sector Perform rating but cut its target to $20.80, putting it below the current price. Note that Scotiabank's target appears to reference the ADR (NYSE: AMX) rather than the BMV B-share — the currency and listing discrepancy makes a direct comparison unreliable, so that figure should be treated with some caution. The net message from the Street is one of selective neutrality: no conviction either way, with the bulls and bears both anchored in a fairly tight range around the current level.
From a near-term price perspective, the stock is down about 3% on both the week and the month, closing at MXN 22.50 after a small 1% bounce on Tuesday. Close peers have had a mixed week. VOD on the LSE fell 2.7%, broadly in line with AMX B's weekly decline. TIMS3 on Bovespa managed a 1.5% gain. TMUS slipped just over 1%. The relative weakness in AMX B is therefore consistent with the broader emerging-market telecom group rather than company-specific.
The next confirmed earnings event lands on July 14. Q1 results — released around April 22 — produced a modest 2.2% one-day gain and a 3.3% five-day drift higher, consistent with the beat on wireless subscriber growth noted at the time. The pattern across the three most recent events shows moves contained within a ±2% range on the day. What to watch into the July print is whether the combination of quietly rising short interest, a freshly trimmed Scotiabank target, and sustained peso volatility across the regional footprint changes the market's appetite for the stock ahead of what has historically been a low-drama earnings release.
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