CRCL enters the final days of May nursing an 8% single-session loss — $104.17 at Tuesday's close — as a steady drumbeat of insider selling collides with a Street that is still lifting price targets but hasn't yet reached a Buy consensus.
The insider activity is hard to miss. Every recent trade on record is a sale. The CFO, CTO, Chief Accounting Officer, and multiple directors have all sold shares across May, with transactions ranging from routine equity-plan disposals through to the Independent Director M. Michele Burns liquidating $1.2 million across two separate dates. Net, insiders moved roughly $12.8 million worth of stock over the past 90 days. None of these trades carry the highest significance scores, and there is no sign of open-market buying to offset them. Taken together, they paint a picture of executives trimming at elevated prices — hardly panic, but a consistent one-directional flow that is worth keeping in mind as the stock retreats from its recent highs.
Short interest is real but not extreme, and the lending market is far from tense. At roughly 10.9% of the free float, the short position is meaningful for a recently listed fintech, but it has been slowly declining over the past month — down from a peak above 24.8 million shares in late April to around 23.7 million now. Availability in the borrow market is wide open: roughly 810% of current short interest is available to lend, meaning there is ample supply for any new short seller who wants in. Cost to borrow has fallen sharply too, down 45% over the past month to just 0.25% annualised — effectively free financing for bearish positions. The ORTEX short score of 50 is squarely neutral, ranking in the 23rd percentile of the universe by that measure. Shorts have a position, but there is no squeeze pressure and no crowding signal.
Options traders are currently among the more bullish voices in the room. The put/call ratio of 0.71 is actually below its 20-day average of 0.75, and at nearly two standard deviations below that mean it sits toward the call-heavy end of its recent range. That is the opposite of a defensive setup — options participants are holding relatively more calls than puts compared to recent norms. The contrast with the insider selling is notable: two data sources, two different reads on near-term conviction.
The Street is broadly constructive but fractured on how much to pay. Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-Weight last week while raising its target from $80 to $106 — essentially calling the stock roughly fairly valued at current levels. HC Wainwright upgraded to Buy with a $150 target earlier in the month. Needham, Wells Fargo, and Mizuho all lifted targets recently, with bulls clustering in the $135–$160 range. Against that, Keybanc just initiated at Sector Weight with no target, and Compass Point remains a lone Sell at $77. The consensus sits at Hold with 10 analysts; the EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed about 5 turns over the past month to roughly 31x, which reflects both the price retreat and some estimate drift upward. The bull case rests on 72% year-over-year USDC circulation growth and Circle's rising share of stablecoin transaction volume — nearly 50% in Q4'25. The bear case is cleaner: interest rates drive reserve yield, and if rates fall, EBITDA estimates for FY27 and FY28 come down materially.
On institutional flows, some notable divergences have emerged. IDG Capital trimmed nearly a million shares in Q1. Marshall Wace, the London-based long/short fund, cut its position by over four million shares in the same period. On the other side, Vanguard initiated a position of 5.5 million shares, ARK added 368,000 shares, and Southpoint Capital more than doubled its stake to 3.3 million shares. The crosscurrents between systematic sellers and new buyers among passive and thematic funds show a register of ownership still in transition after the IPO.
The next formal test arrives on August 10, when Circle reports its next set of results. The last earnings print saw the stock fall nearly 10% on the day, recovering only modestly over the subsequent week. Whether the rate environment has shifted enough by then to change the reserve-yield narrative is the number to watch.
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