GEMI (Gemini Space Station) enters the final stretch before its June 15 earnings with a week of genuine data shifts — short sellers have pulled back, borrow has eased from its tightest levels, yet options positioning has flipped sharply more defensive.
The most notable development since last week's note is that the borrow market, which had completely seized up at 0% availability on May 19-20, has partially reopened. Availability climbed back to 4.1% by May 26 — still extremely tight (fewer than one share available for every 24 borrowed), but no longer the complete lockout reported eight days ago. Cost to borrow has correspondingly eased, falling to 4.84% from 6.17% on May 18 — a 32% drop over the month. Shares short also declined about 9.4% on the week to 7.95 million, reversing part of the sharp build that peaked mid-month. The ORTEX short score has edged down to 73.9 from 74.8 on May 18, still ranking in the bottom 3rd percentile of all stocks, meaning extreme short pressure remains the dominant positioning story even as the acute squeeze conditions of last week ease somewhat.
Options positioning has moved in the opposite direction to the softening borrow market. The put/call ratio rose to 0.44 by May 26 — more than two standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.36, the highest defensive reading since late last year. That is a clear shift from the 52-week low of 0.31 recorded on May 18, when options traders were leaning aggressively bullish. In one week, the options tone has swung from maximum optimism to its most cautious posture in months. The stock's 7.4% single-day drop on May 26 and a 3.4% loss on the week, to $4.78, likely accelerated that rotation into puts.
The analyst picture is structurally bearish despite one holdout. The dominant trend in recent months has been aggressive target-price cuts: Morgan Stanley slashed its target from $13 to $6, Evercore ISI halved its target to $5, and Citigroup — which downgraded to Sell in March — further cut to $4 in late April. Goldman Sachs made two successive reductions, most recently to $5.75. Rosenblatt maintained its Buy and $9 target as recently as May 18, holding out as the lone bull on current price levels. The mean target of $8.65 implies roughly 81% upside to the May 26 close, but with multiple analysts anchoring below $6, that average flatters the consensus. The bear case centres on declining trading volumes, competition from traditional finance entering digital assets, and sustained operating losses — the negative P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples confirm the company is not yet profitable.
One ownership event stands out. On May 14, an insider entity recorded as a family-owned company bought 7.14 million shares at $14.00 per share — a $100 million transaction. That price, $14, is more than double the current trading level of $4.78, and the purchase now sits deep underwater. The Winklevoss Capital entity holds 68.97% of shares, and this transaction added roughly 16% of the company at a price far above current market. Net insider buying over 90 days totals approximately $100.4 million. Against that, the Acting CFO sold 11,700 shares at $5.05 on May 20 — a small and low-significance transaction, but one pointing in the opposite direction.
The next test is June 15 earnings. The last two earnings events both produced double-digit single-day moves — a 13.4% jump in May following the most recent print. With availability still deep in the "very tight" zone, an earnings-driven short-cover rush would face a structurally constrained borrow pool. The watch point is whether options positioning — now decisively defensive — continues to build toward the print, and whether availability tightens back toward zero or opens up further as the date approaches.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open GEMI on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
