XTB has recovered 3.1% on the week to PLN 108.84, quietly reversing the picture from last week's note — where a dividend approval met a 26% spike in cost to borrow.
The most interesting development this week is how the lending market has behaved since that CTB peak. Borrow costs, which hit 1.08% on May 19, have edged back to 1.04% — a modest 1.6% week-on-week decline, though still up 41% against the level from a month ago. The reversal is tentative rather than decisive: the CTB dipped sharply to 0.73% in late April, rebounded into the mid-1.00s through May, and is now consolidating near the top of that range. Availability remains very loose at 1,141% — meaning there are roughly eleven shares available to borrow for every one currently shorted — so there is no sign of borrow market stress driving the cost move. It looks more like episodic demand than a structural squeeze.
Short interest itself is not the story here. The ORTEX short score has drifted slightly lower over the past ten days, from 30.46 on May 14 to 29.78 on May 26 — a modest easing that aligns with the stock's gentle grind higher. At these levels the short score ranks in the 71st percentile, meaning XTB carries more short-side interest than most names in its universe, but with availability this wide and costs this low, the positioning looks more passive than aggressive. The lending market is well-supplied.
The ownership picture is stable but worth a footnote. Founder Jakub Zabłocki holds 43.8% of shares and has not moved that position — the most recent filing shows no change. Norges Bank holds a further 4.3%, with several Polish pension and fund managers clustered in the 1–4% range beneath them. The week's insider activity was limited to share awards to the executive board on May 22, all at zero cost and with minimal significance scores. No material cash buying or selling has occurred in the 90-day window, so the insider signal is neutral.
Earnings history adds a note of caution. The four most recent post-results moves have been mixed: the stock fell 5.1% after the May 15 release and dropped 3.6–3.8% after the April events, while the May 8 print produced a 3.6% gain. The next earnings event is flagged for August 28. The dividend factor score remains one of XTB's strongest readings at the 88th percentile, though dividend history in the data only runs to 2022 — and the 2025 payout just approved is the live driver, not any historical series.
Among correlated peers, OPY gained 1.7% on the week and AZA climbed 5.6%, while CWD fell 6.9% and BLU dropped 10.5%. XTB's 3.1% weekly gain sits comfortably in the upper half of the peer group, with the wider brokerage and financial services space showing scattered performance rather than a clear directional theme. What to watch next is whether CTB settles back below the 1.00% mark as the post-dividend borrow demand fades, or whether it holds elevated — that will be the cleaner read on whether new short positioning is being established ahead of the August earnings.
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