ConnectOne Bancorp enters the final stretch of April with its best monthly showing in some time — up 14% in April — and the Street's most active regional bank analyst just confirmed higher conviction on the name.
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised its price target on CNOB to $34 from $32 on April 24, maintaining its Outperform rating. That move followed the bank's Q1 earnings release a day earlier, which generated a 1.8% one-day price gain. The revised target implies roughly 14% further upside from Tuesday's $29.76 close. Piper Sandler also holds an Overweight, though its March target revision moved the other way — down to $31 from $33 when the analyst assumed coverage. The consensus mean target is $32.70, about 10% above current levels. With forward EPS growth ranked in the 95th percentile of the universe, the Street's bullish tilt has earnings momentum behind it.
Short positioning has been unwinding sharply, and that matters for understanding the rally. Short interest fell roughly 15% over the past week to 3.4% of free float — from around 2.0 million shares to 1.7 million. Much of that drop landed in a single session on April 23, the day of the earnings release, when short interest fell from just under 2.0 million to 1.7 million and held there. At 3.4%, the float is only lightly shorted. The ORTEX short score eased to 39.7 from 43 over the same window, consistent with short sellers pulling back after the print. The borrow market is loose: availability remains ample, cost to borrow is running at just 0.51% annualised — cheap enough that the borrowing cost alone is not a consideration for anyone building a position.
Options positioning is leaning modestly bullish and shows no sign of hedge demand. The put/call ratio is near its 52-week low at 0.15, slightly below its 20-day average of 0.16, and the z-score of -0.6 confirms calls are outpacing puts by a wider margin than usual. That's a tame, mildly constructive setup rather than a signal of crowded enthusiasm.
The institutional register lends further context. BlackRock holds 9.6% of shares and added modestly in Q1. Vanguard and Dimensional both added in the quarter, and Wellington and FMR hold meaningful stakes as well. Notably, CEO Frank Sorrentino holds 1.6% of the company. On March 25, Sorrentino sold 11,523 shares at $26.27 — about $303,000 in proceeds — alongside sales by the CFO, President, and two EVPs. Each sale accompanied a restricted stock award on the same date, the typical pattern for annual equity-award vesting and immediate tax-share disposals. The stock has since climbed to $29.76, roughly 13% above those sale prices. The insider net-share figure for the 90-day window is actually positive at +56,816 shares, reflecting the size of the awards versus the sell-side of the same transactions.
Peers were broadly positive on the week but lagged CNOB's 6% gain. HBNC added 4%, FMBH gained 2.2%, and DCOM was essentially flat, down 0.2%. The divergence likely reflects the Q1 earnings catalyst being CNOB-specific rather than a sector-wide move. Next on the calendar is a Q1 2026 results call scheduled for May 19 — at that point the focus shifts from whether the post-earnings re-rating holds to whether management's commentary on loan growth and net interest margin supports the forward EPS trajectory that currently ranks near the top of the regional bank universe.
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