COHU heads into its Q1 2026 earnings print — due after the close today — carrying a striking tension: a stock up 47% in a month, shorts trimming exposure, and two analyst upgrades in as many days that have lifted price targets well above the current price.
The Street's tone shifted sharply this week. Evercore ISI raised its target from $35 to $53 on Tuesday and reiterated Outperform, while Jefferies initiated fresh coverage on Monday with a Buy and a $55 target. Both moves came in the 48 hours before the print, signalling conviction rather than housekeeping. The consensus mean target now sits near $41, though the two newest targets suggest a subset of the Street sees considerably more upside from the current $44.15 close. Forward EPS estimates rank in the 94th percentile for year-over-year growth, and the analyst recommendation spread ranks in the 89th percentile — the bulls are not a fringe view here. The bear case remains centred on automotive and industrial end-market concentration and the history of operating losses when cycles turn; with EV/EBITDA now near 29x and PE above 57x, the stock is not cheap on reported earnings. The EV/EBITDA multiple has already compressed roughly 3.6 points over the past month even as the stock rallied — the market is pricing recovery, not current earnings power.
Short positioning adds an interesting backdrop but does not dominate the setup. At 13.7% of the free float, short interest is meaningful, but it has been easing — down 5% over the week and sitting near the lower end of the month's range after peaking mid-April around 6.9 million shares. Days to cover runs at 8.6 on official FINRA data and 11.4 on the ORTEX estimate, both elevated. Borrow availability remains loose enough that there is no mechanical squeeze pressure: cost to borrow is a modest 0.45% and has been drifting lower all month. The ORTEX short score of 66.7 is elevated but has not climbed further this week — it actually ticked down from Monday's 67.5 — suggesting shorts are not pressing into the print, they are trimming. The RSI at 70.9 is technically overbought after the 47% monthly surge, which itself came from the low-$29 range.
Options positioning has flipped more cautious into the event. The put/call ratio climbed to 0.196 on Tuesday — more than 2.4 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.154 — the most defensive options read in roughly the past month. In absolute terms it remains a low PCR (calls still dominate the open interest skew), but the directional move is notable given the stock's near-vertical trajectory. The 52-week PCR high is just above 1.0, so there is plenty of room for protection demand to rise further if the print disappoints.
The insider register offers some colour worth noting. The CEO, CFO, and Chief Customer Officer all sold shares on March 12-13, at prices in the high-$27s — well below the current level. The cluster of C-suite selling in mid-March generated a net 90-day outflow of roughly $2.3 million, though at the prices realised the trades look more like planned disposals than distress signals. There has been no buying to offset the sales in the record. Top institutional holders — BlackRock at 15.1% and Vanguard at 9.2% — were both adding modestly as of March-end, but those filings predate the rally.
Earnings history adds one unambiguous data point: the last print, on February 12, sent the stock down 10.4% on the day and 11.3% over the following week. Peers have had a rough Tuesday as well — AMKR fell 5.6%, ONTO dropped 5.3%, and FORM shed 6.8% — suggesting semiconductor equipment broadly remains under macro pressure. The setup heading into today's close is therefore a stock priced for a strong recovery, with short sellers stepping back, options traders adding modest protection, and two high-conviction analyst upgrades framing the upside. The next reference point is whether management's tone on automotive test demand and 2026 guidance aligns with what those new targets are pricing in.
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