Since yesterday's note, one number has changed sharply: BlackRock short interest climbed 20.5% overnight to 1.38% of free float. That's the biggest one-day move in the data window. It needs context before drawing conclusions.
SI jumped from roughly 1.77 million shares to 2.13 million — a genuine spike. But the base is historically low. At 1.38% of free float, BLK remains one of the lightest-shorted large-cap financials in the market. The weekly rise of 18.8% sounds dramatic; in absolute terms, bears added fewer than 360,000 shares on a stock with over 150 million shares available to borrow.
The borrow market confirms the move hasn't stretched anything. Availability sits at the maximum reading — every share anyone wants to short can be sourced immediately. Cost to borrow dropped 50% this week to just 0.21%. Short sellers are building a position into a lending market that's getting cheaper and easier, not tighter. That's not the profile of a squeeze risk.
The options market isn't corroborating the short-interest build. The put/call ratio sits at 1.36, still below its 20-day mean of 1.39. Yesterday's article flagged the PCR touching a near-2-standard-deviation low. It has ticked back up modestly but remains below average. Options traders are not hedging into this SI spike — they're sitting in a constructive posture relative to the past month.
The combination is unusual. Short interest rising while put demand stays subdued suggests the new short positions are more likely tactical or hedging-related than directional conviction bets against the stock.
The stock closed Wednesday at $1,070. The consensus price target is $1,251. That's 17% upside still on the table. After April earnings, UBS raised its target to $1,270, Morgan Stanley to $1,393, Goldman Sachs to $1,313, and Barclays to $1,310 — all maintaining bullish ratings. The gap between price and target is large enough that incremental short-sellers face meaningful covering pressure if the stock continues to recover.
Next earnings are scheduled for July 17. The last four prints all produced positive one-day moves, ranging from +2.3% to +2.6%.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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