CBSH: Analysts lift targets after Q1 beat, shorts quietly retreat

Commerce Bancshares heads into its May 1 earnings call with short sellers trimming positions, analysts nudging targets higher, and the stock trading at its best level in weeks — a quietly constructive setup for a name not known for drama.

The most interesting development this week came from the analyst community. After a cluster of target cuts through late January and into March, the Street reversed course on April 23. TD Cowen, Piper Sandler, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods all raised their price targets following Q1 results — Piper moved to $58.50 from $56, KBW to $56 from $54. Ratings stayed flat across the board at Hold, Neutral, and Market Perform respectively, reflecting the bear case clearly: the franchise is high quality, but the premium valuation leaves limited room for multiple expansion and growth catalysts remain scarce. The mean target now sits at $58.56, implying roughly 13% upside from the $51.97 close. Morgan Stanley's Equal-Weight target at $65 is an outlier on the high side; the more recent actions cluster between $54 and $58.50, which is a tighter range than it looks.

Valuation has crept higher with the price. The P/E ratio has expanded to 12.4x, up by about 0.8x over the past 30 days. The price-to-book ratio moved up 0.12x over the same period to 1.59x. Neither reads as stretched for a profitable regional bank, but the 8% gain over the past month means the stock has outrun the cautious tone most analysts maintained on it. An RSI of 60.6 is firm without being overbought, and the dividend score ranks in the 82nd percentile — a reminder that Commerce's yield and capital return story remains an anchor for patient holders.

Short interest is in retreat, and the lending market is relaxed. Shorts fell sharply on April 23 — a one-day drop of roughly 430,000 shares — and kept falling through the end of the week to reach 3.87% of the free float, down 9.2% over seven days. That unwind came entirely from positions built up during early-to-mid April, when short interest had climbed above 5.6 million shares. The borrow market is not under any stress: availability is wide open, and the cost to borrow at 0.56% is barely above the general collateral rate. The short score has drifted lower all week, from 39.5 on April 17 to 37.8 by April 28. None of this points to elevated conviction on the short side.

Options positioning is marginally bullish. The put/call ratio has been drifting down from near 0.79 in mid-March to 0.71 today, running slightly below its 20-day average of 0.74. At 1.2 standard deviations below the mean, it is the least defensive reading in some time — not a strong signal on its own, but it aligns with the broader picture of shorts covering and analysts raising targets. The 52-week PCR range spans from zero to 5.18, so the current level is toward the low end. Calls have gradually displaced puts in the open interest mix as the stock recovered through April.

The earnings history adds modest context. Q1 2026 results, announced April 21, produced a one-day decline of 1.6% but recovered to a five-day gain of 1.1%. The January print was softer — down 3.4% on the day and 4.1% over five sessions — suggesting the market had already absorbed much of the weaker-quarter reaction before the April beat arrived. With the May 1 call now imminent, the pattern worth watching is how management frames the credit quality and loan growth picture against a backdrop where the Street has just — cautiously — lifted its view.