Options traders have turned sharply bullish on UPS. The put-call ratio hit 0.73 on May 28 — the lowest level in 52 weeks and 3.3 standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 0.87. That's an unusually aggressive call-buying signal, arriving just as the stock rallied 2.5% on the day and 5.7% on the week.
The timing matters. Next earnings are scheduled for July 28. Traders appear to be positioning early.
The PCR has fallen from 0.95 on May 18 to 0.73 today. That's a sharp 10-session rotation away from puts toward calls. The 52-week PCR range runs from 0.40 to 1.05, placing the current reading well toward the bullish end — though still well above the all-time floor.
Two analysts moved targets late April. Citigroup's Ariel Rosa raised his price target to $127, the highest on the data. UBS lowered modestly to $123. Both kept Buy ratings. The consensus sits at "Hold" with a mean target of $112.88, implying roughly 8% upside from the May 27 close of $104.47.
The borrow market tells a different story. Availability stands at 2,133% — a very loose lending pool with roughly 470 million shares available to borrow. Cost to borrow is just 0.43% annualised. There is no shortage of borrow supply pressuring the call side.
Short interest jumped 23% in a single day to 3.12% of free float — 23.1 million shares. That's the highest level in recent weeks. At 3.12%, short interest is modest in absolute terms. But a one-day 23% spike is notable and suggests a fresh tactical short being put on even as call buyers accumulate.
The ORTEX short score stands at 34.6, near its recent range. Days to cover is 3.47 per FINRA data. This isn't a heavily squeezed stock, but the simultaneous surge in both calls and shorts suggests diverging views ahead of earnings.
Logistics peers are broadly higher this week. FDX is up nearly 10% on the week. GXO is up over 10%. FWRD has surged nearly 25%. UPS at +5.7% is participating, but trailing the group — consistent with the peer-underperformance noted in recent analysis.
The bull case rests on B2B and SMB volume growth and a 16x forward P/E. The bear case centres on Amazon volume loss and rising fuel costs. The July 28 print will determine which side of that trade looks correct.
Data summary
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Short sellers add to positions into earnings. The logistics giant reports Tuesday morning with bearish bets up 10% over the past month. Short interest stands at 19.4 million shares as of April 23, representing 2.62% of…
