SID — the NYSE-listed ADR of Brazilian steelmaker Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional — is carrying the most interesting tension of the year going into its May 13 results: short sellers have been quietly rebuilding positions all month even as the stock gains ground, and the last time these two forces met over an earnings print, the stock fell nearly 20% in a single session.
Short sellers have been piling back in. Estimated short shares climbed roughly 47% over the past month, recovering from a trough near 5.6 million shares in mid-March to around 9.5 million by the end of April. The move has been choppy — a spike to 11.4 million on April 9 during the broader market tariff shock was followed by a partial unwind — but the directional rebuild is clear. Despite that, the borrow market itself looks relaxed. Cost to borrow has eased sharply, down 26% on the week to just 0.67% annualised. That is cheap financing for a short position, which means new shorts face little friction entering here. The options market adds a different shade: the put/call ratio is running at just 0.0375, actually slightly below its 20-day average and well away from any defensive extreme. Options traders are not hedging into the May print — if anything, the skew is mildly bullish.
The Street backdrop is thin and mostly stale. The one credible recent action comes from UBS, which in December 2025 raised its price target modestly to $1.40 while reiterating a Sell — a target that, at the current price of $1.30, leaves almost no implied room before the call becomes a valid short thesis. Older actions from BofA and Itaú BBA dated back to 2024 and earlier have skewed heavily toward Underperform and downgrades, but those pre-date the current price level and should not be treated as live calls. On valuation, the picture is mixed. EV/EBITDA is a lean 4.45x — not demanding for a steelmaker — and price-to-book is 0.65x, below replacement cost. But earnings are currently negative, producing a P/E of -23x that reflects the earnings pressure CSN has faced. The factor scores offer an interesting counterpoint: EPS momentum ranks at the 100th percentile over both 30 and 90 days, and EPS surprise is in the 97th percentile. The forward earnings estimate trend is sharply positive even if trailing earnings remain in the red.
The institutional register offers little short-term colour. Rio Purus Participações holds 45% of shares and hasn't moved. Western passive managers — Vanguard, BlackRock, Dimensional — have made small incremental additions, but nothing that shifts the story. The float is narrow, which partly explains why even modest short-side rebuilding is visible in the percentage change.
The May 13 print will cast a long shadow over all of this. The March 2026 quarter saw the stock drop 19.6% the next day and close the following week down 13.8%. That was a severe reaction by any measure, and it happened against a backdrop where short interest was already elevated heading in. The current setup — shorts rebuilding cheaply, options traders apparently unconcerned, valuation low but earnings still negative — puts the May release at the centre of everything worth watching on this name.
The key question around May 13 is whether the momentum in EPS estimates translates into a tangible earnings recovery, or whether the bearish analyst consensus and the rebuilt short position prove better-informed.
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