CONMED is heading into a May earnings event with options traders at their most defensive in at least a year, while short sellers have quietly rebuilt positions after a brief retreat.
The most striking read this week is in options. The put/call ratio has jumped to 2.01 — the highest level of the past 52 weeks and more than double its 20-day average of 0.95. That is a sharp and abrupt shift: for most of March and early April the ratio was running comfortably below 0.40, a broadly relaxed posture. Then came a rapid reversal in late April, with the PCR surging to its current extreme. That points to a heavy wave of downside protection being bought ahead of the May 18 results, not a gradual drift in sentiment.
Short interest reinforces the caution without overstating it. SI has climbed back to roughly 7.9% of the free float, adding about 5% over the past week after dipping to a recent low near 7.46% in mid-April. The move is a rebuild, not a fresh escalation: back in mid-March short positioning was running above 8.2%, so the current level is a return toward that earlier range rather than new-cycle territory. Borrow conditions are relaxed — cost to borrow barely registers at 0.49% APR, and the lending pool remains well-supplied. Availability is nowhere near stressed territory, which means there is no mechanical pressure on existing shorts from a borrow squeeze. The ORTEX short score edged up to 50.2 this week, the highest over the recent 10-day window, but still mid-table on a 0-100 scale — short pressure is present but far from extreme.
The Street is largely on the sidelines, and the recent trajectory of analyst moves reflects a steady draining of conviction. Piper Sandler delivered the most significant recent action: in mid-March the firm downgraded CONMED from Overweight to Neutral while slashing its target from $55 to $39 — a move that undercut the bull camp's structural case. Wells Fargo and Needham have both held neutral-equivalent stances, with only modest target adjustments after the last quarterly print. JP Morgan and Bank of America both cut targets in late 2025, and no one on the Street has added a Buy-equivalent rating in recent months. The consensus is Hold across five analysts, with a mean price target of $44.75 — a roughly 25% premium to the current $35.96 close. That gap sounds wide, but given the cluster of downward revisions it reflects where targets were, not where the Street is actively pushing.
Valuation is cheap on the surface but the context matters. The EV/EBITDA multiple has eased to around 7.2x, down modestly over both the past week and month. The price-to-book sits below 1.0x at 0.97x. The EV/EBIT factor ranks in the 86th percentile on ORTEX's scoring universe — meaning CONMED screens as attractively valued relative to peers. The bull case centres on recovery in BioBrace adoption and Foot & Ankle growth. The bear case points to ongoing international capital weakness, a 27%-plus drawdown over the past year, and a turnaround story that has repeatedly disappointed. The stock is down 6.6% on the week and 2.3% on the day, broadly in line with a weak medical device tape — peers BAX fell nearly 3%, ALGN dropped 4%, and GEHC gave back 2.8% on the same session.
The last two earnings prints offer a mixed template. The April 22 release produced a 1-day decline of 2.2% and a 5-day move of -6.2%, a clear negative signal. The one before that — February 2026 — delivered a 4.8% day-one gain and a 9.1% 5-day rally. That alternating pattern gives no clean read on direction. What it does confirm is that CONMED moves on its numbers. With the PCR at a 52-week extreme, a May 18 print, and short positions quietly rebuilding, the stock is primed to react sharply in either direction — what the result has to say about the BioBrace rollout and international capital recovery will determine which.
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