Hewlett Packard Enterprise heads into its June 1 earnings release having already delivered one of its sharpest monthly runs in years — and analysts are scrambling to keep up.
The price action alone frames the debate. HPE closed at $38.21 on May 28, up 33% over the past month and 12.5% on the week. That move has left the stock trading well above the mean analyst price target of $29.92 — a gap that raises an immediate question about whether the Street's collective view has already been overtaken by events. Morgan Stanley moved first among the majors, lifting its target from $25 to $33 on May 21 while keeping its Equal-Weight rating in place — a signal the firm sees improvement but remains cautious on valuation at current levels. Citigroup had already acted more boldly in mid-May, raising its target from $27 to $39 with a Buy rating intact. With the stock now near the most bullish targets on the board, the consensus has effectively gone from laggard to irrelevant in under a month.
Short interest is a secondary story here, not the primary one. SI runs near 4.9% of the free float — meaningful, but well off the 6%+ readings from mid-May as shorts have been covering into the rally. From late April to mid-May, short positions were running above 80 million shares; that has now pulled back to around 64.5 million. Borrow conditions remain loose, with cost to borrow at just 0.42% and availability at a very comfortable 2,181% — there is no squeeze pressure, and no material friction for anyone still positioned short. The ORTEX short score of 39.9 ranks in the bottom 40th percentile, confirming the bearish positioning story is far from extreme.
The bull and bear cases are well-defined. Bulls point to the Juniper integration, where annual recurring revenue has grown more than 30% year-over-year, and to a projected revenue CAGR of 11–13% through 2027 with expanding AI infrastructure exposure. Forward EPS growth ranks in the 92nd percentile on a 12-month basis — the strongest factor in the score profile. The dividend score sits at the 90th percentile, giving income-oriented holders additional reason to hold. Bears counter with a decade of server market share erosion — roughly 13% lost in enterprise segments — persistent margin pressure, and an as-a-service transition that is not expected to account for more than 10% of revenue in the near term. Elliott Management, a notable activist presence in the holder list at around 2.1% of shares, adds an extra dimension to the ownership picture. The options market reflects modest caution rather than alarm: the put/call ratio has ticked up to 0.72, about one standard deviation above its 20-day average of 0.65, but well inside the 52-week high of 1.14.
Insider activity adds one more layer. CFO Marie Myers sold approximately 93,600 shares at around $30 on May 5, and CEO Antonio Neri sold 150,000 shares at roughly $26.50 in mid-April. Both sales preceded the bulk of the rally. The net 90-day insider position is marginally positive in share terms, but the dollar direction leans toward trimming, not accumulation — executives have been lightening exposure into strength rather than adding.
The June 1 print will test whether HPE's AI-infrastructure story has enough substance at a $38 stock price to validate what the market has already priced in, or whether the guidance on server margins and Juniper integration is the level of evidence the Street now needs to sustain the move.
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Hewlett Packard Enterprise arrives at its June 1 earnings date with a striking split: short sellers have pulled back sharply from April's highs, yet the options market just flashed its most defensive reading of the…
