KR arrives at its June 2 first-quarter earnings report under unusual pressure — the stock is down 18% from its March post-earnings high of $75.60, falling to $62.15, and dropped another 2.4% on Friday alone.
The selloff has been broad. Peers ACI and COST fell roughly 7% and 7.3% respectively on the week, while WMT slid 9.1%. Kroger's 7.6% weekly decline sits in that range, suggesting sector-wide rotation rather than a company-specific catalyst. Still, the one-month drawdown of 7.1% means the stock enters the print at its lowest level since before Q4 results, wiping out the 9% post-earnings gain from March 5.
Positioning into the report is notably calm. Short interest is a modest 4.0% of the free float — up just 2.1% on the week and essentially flat over the past month. Borrowing KR stock costs virtually nothing at 0.46% annualised, and availability is extraordinarily loose at over 1,300% of short interest. There is no meaningful short squeeze pressure, and no evidence of a fresh wave of bearish conviction building ahead of the print. Options confirm the relaxed tone: the put/call ratio has actually dipped this week to 0.69, a notch below its 20-day average of 0.72 and the first time it has fallen meaningfully since early May. Traders are not loading up on downside protection.
The analyst debate centres on whether Kroger can sustain the earnings normalization narrative that drove targets sharply higher after Q4. Following March's strong beat — a 9% single-day pop and 10% five-day follow-through — a cluster of firms raised targets into the $71–$83 range. Morgan Stanley lifted to $73, Evercore ISI to $83, and Citigroup to $71, all maintaining existing ratings. None of those moves are fresher than late March, so the consensus of roughly $75.50 — about 21% above Friday's close — now looks optimistic relative to where the stock has drifted. Bulls point to the new CEO's technology and loyalty strategy and a forward EPS growth profile ranked at the 84th percentile of the broader market. Bears flag rising competition from WMT and Amazon, ongoing inflation risk, and a Q4-to-Q1 comparison that will be hard to replicate. Wells Fargo downgraded to Equal-Weight before the March print; that cautious posture looks better-placed today.
The Q1 print will test whether the growth rerating that lifted the stock to $75 was built on durable earnings momentum — or whether it reflected relief after the Albertsons saga that is now fading.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open KR on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
