SJM heads into its June 2 earnings print with analysts broadly skeptical but the stock's own positioning telling a quieter story.
The loudest signal ahead of this print comes from the analyst community. Target prices have been cut across the board in recent weeks, a clear sign the Street is recalibrating expectations. JP Morgan maintained its Overweight rating but slashed its target from $130 to $120 just ten days ago. Bernstein and Wells Fargo made similar moves in early May — both kept positive ratings but trimmed targets by $10–20. Morgan Stanley and Barclays have been more cautious for longer, sitting at Equal-Weight with targets near $103–$104, effectively at the current price. The mean target of $116 implies roughly 12% upside from $103.20, but that cushion has narrowed significantly since the start of the quarter.
The bull and bear cases converge on a single variable: coffee pricing. Bulls point to roughly 20% cumulative price increases in U.S. coffee that management expects to deliver comparable sales growth of 3.5%–5.5% in FY26. Free cash flow guidance of $875 million — up $58 million from FY25 — gives that story some credibility. Bears counter that volume elasticity is already biting. The most recent quarter saw a 24% EPS decline, and the company's own FY26 guidance projects an 11% EPS drop as higher prices push consumers toward alternatives. Tariff headwinds and continued weakness in the Sweet Baked Snacks segment add pressure. The forward EPS momentum score sits at the 93rd percentile — analysts have been revising estimates higher — but the earnings surprise score ranks at just the 3rd percentile, meaning the company has rarely beaten on the bottom line.
Short interest tells a much calmer story. SI has fallen sharply — down roughly 26% over the past month to 4.3% of the free float — a meaningful retreat that suggests short sellers have been covering rather than adding. The borrow market is extremely loose, with availability running at more than 6,000% of current short interest, leaving ample room for anyone wanting to build a short position if the print disappoints. Cost to borrow ticked up 52% on the week to 0.54%, but that is still near historic lows in absolute terms. Options positioning is similarly subdued, with the put/call ratio at 0.37 — slightly above its 20-day average of 0.34 but less than one standard deviation out, and nowhere near the 52-week high of 1.07.
After last February's Q3 print, SJM rallied 8.8% the following day and held most of that gain over the next five sessions. The June 2 report will test whether management can demonstrate that FY26 coffee pricing is generating real revenue growth without sacrificing volumes — and whether the Sweet Baked Snacks segment shows any sign of stabilisation to reassure a Street that has spent most of this spring cutting its expectations.
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