DaVita Inc. reports Q1 results after the bell on May 1 carrying a specific burden: the last time it posted earnings, shorts fled the stock and the price ripped more than 23% in a single session — and the Street hasn't forgotten.
The positioning data heading into this week's print is notably less charged than it was in February. Short interest has been easing. It closed April 28 at 8.5% of free float, down about 3% on the week and modestly lower over the month. The history tells a more specific story: shorts added aggressively in mid-April, pushing the position to around 6.2 million shares before pulling back sharply toward the end of the month. That mid-April build — and the subsequent trim — suggests tactical rather than structural conviction among bears. Cost to borrow reinforces that read: it has edged lower over both the past week and the past month, settling at a very modest 0.43%. There is no pressure in the lending market. Availability, with roughly three shares available for every four already borrowed, is nowhere near tight enough to constrain new short positions. The ORTEX short score sits at 65 — meaningful, but not elevated — and has ticked up gradually from 63.6 in mid-April, reflecting the temporary increase in shorts.
Options positioning adds almost nothing to the bear case. The put/call ratio of 0.89 is essentially at its 20-day average, with a z-score close to zero. That is a sharp contrast to March, when the PCR was running above 1.4 — a genuinely defensive posture. Since early April the ratio has normalised completely, and options traders appear indifferent to directional risk heading into the number. The 52-week high PCR of 4.38 is a reminder that this name can attract heavy hedging, but right now it simply isn't.
The Street's positioning reflects caution rather than conviction in either direction. The analyst consensus is a hold, with mean target at $152 — essentially in line with the current price of $151.99. The most recent analyst moves came in early February, when UBS raised its target to $190 (maintaining Buy) and Barclays lifted to $158 (maintaining Equal-Weight) in the immediate aftermath of the February earnings beat. Those post-print upgrades now look like the high-water mark for near-term enthusiasm; no firm has moved since. The PE sits at 10.1 turns, down modestly over the past 30 days, while EV/EBITDA is running at 8.4 — steady and undemanding multiples for a company with a dominant market position. EPS momentum factor scores are notably constructive: 30-day momentum ranks in the 64th percentile, 90-day in the 81st, and the 12-month forward EPS growth rank hits the 80th. Those are the numbers that backed the February beat. The bear case centres on reimbursement risk from Medicare — roughly two-thirds of US revenue — and a payer mix where commercial patients (only 10% of the total) drive a disproportionate share of profits, creating sensitivity to any shift in that mix.
The ownership structure deserves a mention because it is genuinely unusual. Berkshire Hathaway holds approximately 45.6% of shares outstanding — close to 30 million shares — and trimmed that position by 1.66 million shares in the most recent reporting period. Arrowstreet Capital and Millennium Management each built material positions at year-end 2025, adding 636,000 and 454,000 shares respectively. On the insider front, the CFO and Chief Legal Officer both sold shares in mid-March at around $150.72 — essentially the current price level — though significance scores were low, consistent with routine plan-based sales.
The earnings history is the most compelling data point in the pack. The February 2026 print produced a 23.2% one-day gain and a 25.9% five-day gain — an extraordinary move for a healthcare services name. The prior print, in February 2025, produced a near-flat reaction of 0.3%. That volatility dispersion is wide, and it frames the question ahead of May 1 more sharply than any positioning metric: was the February move a re-rating that sticks, or a one-off snap back from compressed expectations?
With shorts pulling back, borrow cheap, and options traders showing no hedging urgency, the market is not braced for a repeat of February's drama. What to watch is whether the quarter's volume trends and payer mix commentary support the EPS momentum that factor scores are currently flagging as above average — or whether the reimbursement pressure bears have been warning about finally shows up in the numbers.
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