VSAT has now cleared its earnings hurdle — and the market's initial verdict was a 7% sell-off on May 29, even as the Street's most vocal bull raised his target to $106.
The result followed a remarkable setup. The stock had rallied 39% over the prior month to $80.62, leaving it priced for perfection into the print. The earnings release on May 28 triggered a one-day drop of 5.8%, and Thursday's session added another leg lower. That brings VSAT back toward its pre-results level, though it still holds an 8% gain on the week — a sign the broader rally hasn't fully reversed. Peers were mixed: HLIT surged 19% on the week while CIEN slipped 1.2%, suggesting the communications equipment group offered no single clear direction to hide in.
Options positioning had already signalled the caution. The put/call ratio climbed to 0.70 by the close of May 29, running nearly 1.4 standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.47. That hedging built steadily through the back half of May — the PCR sat near 0.30 in early May and roughly doubled into the print. The 52-week high is 1.16, so the ratio hasn't reached a panic-level extreme, but the direction of travel was clear: call dominance gave way to growing demand for downside protection as the stock ran higher.
Short interest is meaningful but not the driving story here. At 7.5% of the free float — around 10.2 million shares — it is a real overhang, yet it has edged down roughly 5% over the past month and barely moved on the week. Borrow conditions are relaxed: availability is 672%, meaning there is roughly six times as much stock available to borrow as is currently shorted, and the cost to borrow sits at 0.52%, up about 18% on the week but still firmly in low territory. The lending market offers no squeeze pressure to force a rapid unwind.
The analyst who moved most forcefully is B. Riley's Mike Crawford, who raised his target to $106 from $94 on May 29 — the second target hike from him in a month, after lifting from $52 to $94 in late April. At $106, his target sits 31% above Thursday's close of $80.62 and well above the consensus mean of $78.75, making it an outlier rather than a consensus view. The bull case rests on Inmarsat integration driving cost synergies and expanded defense exposure. The bear case is blunter: revenue in the communications segment came in below expectations again, and the segment still accounts for the bulk of group revenue. The EV/EBITDA multiple at 10.9x has risen roughly 0.25 turns over the past month as the stock ran up — not extreme, but not cheap for a business still working through integration. The EPS momentum scores (30-day rank: 5th percentile, 90-day: 3rd percentile) confirm the market hasn't been revising estimates higher. The analyst recommendation divergence score at the 94th percentile suggests the Street is more bullish on VSAT relative to the universe than usual — a supportive backdrop, even if the post-earnings reaction dented confidence.
Institutional holders are broadly passive and stable. BlackRock reported a small add to reach 15.2% of shares in April, while OCO Capital trimmed by 1.45 million shares to 3.3% as of March 31. Insider activity over the past 90 days has been net positive in share terms at roughly 107,000 shares — though the open-market trades visible in recent months have all been sells by division presidents and the general counsel, largely at prices between $45 and $67, well below current levels. Those sales look more like scheduled liquidations than conviction calls given the timing and size.
The next earnings event is scheduled for August 7. What to watch between now and then is whether the post-print dip stabilises above the $75–$78 area — roughly where the consensus price target clusters — or whether the gap between B. Riley's bullish $106 call and the more cautious majority view continues to widen as integration data comes in through the summer.
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