Options traders have turned sharply bullish on IOT ahead of its June 4 earnings — and the stock's recent run gives them reason to be.
The clearest signal heading into the print is in options. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.61, nearly two and a half standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.69 — the most call-skewed reading relative to recent norms in over a year. That reflects a surge in demand for upside exposure, not downside protection. The timing aligns with a powerful price move: IOT gained over 10% on Friday alone and is up 19% on the month, recovering to $34.99 from lows near the mid-$20s in early May.
Short interest complicates the picture slightly. At 11.4% of free float — one of the heavier short loads in its software peer group — bears still hold a meaningful position. Short interest rose roughly 7% over the past week, adding around 2.7 million shares to the short side even as the stock rallied. That's a notable divergence: the stock climbing while shorts build. Borrow conditions, however, give shorts no reason to panic. The cost to borrow is near negligible at 0.54%, and availability is generous at around 346% of short interest, meaning there is ample supply for anyone looking to establish or extend a short position. The lending market offers no squeeze pressure heading into the event.
The bull and bear debate for Samsara centres on growth durability versus market concentration risk. Bulls point to the company's first GAAP-profitable quarter, 30% ARR growth, and a surge in large enterprise customer adds — with Asset Tags ARR up 400% year-over-year highlighting the traction in newer product lines. EPS momentum over 90 days ranks in the 86th percentile, and forward EPS growth expectations are in the 94th percentile of the universe. The analyst community leans clearly positive, with 14 buy-equivalent ratings and a consensus price target of $43.88, implying roughly 25% upside from current levels. The most recent wave of analyst moves — triggered by last quarter's beat in March — saw BMO, RBC, and Wells Fargo all lift targets. Bears counter with a 20% year-over-year decline in heavy-duty truck sales, subscription dependency risk, and a valuation that still demands execution: a P/E of nearly 47x and a price-to-book above 10x leave little room for a miss. Value ranks in the bottom quintile of the ORTEX factor universe.
One ownership note is worth flagging. The two co-founders — CEO Sanjit Biswas and CTO John Bicket — each hold around 16% of shares and together sold over $4 million in stock across May 27-28, as the stock rallied toward its current level. These appear to be routine plan-based transactions given their low trade significance scores, but the timing — just days before the print — is a data point the market will be watching.
June 4's report is ultimately a test of whether the enterprise momentum Samsara showed in March — the quarter that launched a 23% one-day surge — was a turning point or a one-quarter outlier.
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