ADSK fell 4% after its May 28 earnings print. Short sellers built positions ahead of the result. Yet the options market is now telling a different story.
The put-call ratio collapsed to 1.26 on May 29. That's a 3-standard-deviation move below the 20-day mean of 1.43. It's also the lowest reading in more than three months. When short interest rises and the PCR drops simultaneously, the two signals are pulling in opposite directions — and that tension is worth examining.
Short interest climbed 14.2% over the week into earnings, reaching 2.94% of free float and 6.25 million shares. That's a meaningful pre-event build. Yet despite more shares being borrowed, the cost to borrow fell sharply — down 25% week-on-week to 0.39% as of May 28. The lending pool for ADSK remains extremely loose, with availability at the maximum reading in the data. There is no borrow squeeze here. The SI level at under 3% of float is not extreme, but the pace of the build — the steepest seven-day climb in recent months — was notable ahead of a print.
Post-earnings analyst action was swift. Five firms cut price targets on May 29 alone. RBC Capital trimmed from $335 to $305. Wells Fargo went from $350 to $330. Piper Sandler moved from $383 to $369. BMO Capital cut to $262. Morgan Stanley had already moved to $315 from $350 the day before the print.
Crucially, none of these firms downgraded their ratings. Every cut maintained an Outperform or Overweight stance. The consensus mean price target sits at $319.74 against a current price of $231.31 — implying roughly 38% upside. The direction of target revisions is lower, but the conviction on the name remains intact.
The sharp drop in put-call ratio is the counterintuitive signal here. After a stock falls 4% on an earnings miss and analysts cut targets, a PCR collapse toward calls is unusual. It suggests options participants are positioning for recovery rather than further downside. The PCR z-score of -3.15 indicates just how far this reading sits outside recent norms.
Peers moved sharply higher on the same day ADSK fell. GWRE rose 7.4%. HUBS gained 11%. CRM added 8.5%. ADSK's underperformance relative to its software peers on June 1 underscores why the PCR signal stands out — the sector had a strong session and ADSK still lagged.
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