DMC Global reports Q1 results today with the stock up 11% on the week — a sharp reversal of fortune for a name that was shellacked after its last print.
The February earnings release was severe by any measure. The stock dropped 31.7% the next day and shed a further 31.3% over the following five sessions — a collapse that wiped nearly a third of the market cap in one go. The company cited weak pricing, tariff pressure on margins, and a shrinking NobelClad backlog that fell from $49 million to $41 million, driven by customer order delays. The stock has since climbed roughly 33% from those February lows to $6.29, with most of that recovery packed into this week's 10.5% move. Today's print is therefore less about whether DMC Global is growing and more about whether it can demonstrate that February's EBITDA miss was a floor rather than a trend.
Options traders are the most bullish they've been all year heading into the release. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.058, near the bottom of its 52-week range (low: 0.031, high: 0.357) — meaning call volume dominates put volume by a ratio of roughly 17-to-1, a reading well below its own 20-day average of 0.062. Short interest tells a complementary story of retreat: the estimated short position has fallen to 4.4% of free float, down from around 6% in late March and early April, as shorts covered through the price recovery. Borrow availability is loose — availability has barely been tested, with the lending pool well supplied at a utilization rate near its lowest level of the past year, and a cost to borrow of just 0.52%, down 21% over the week. There is no meaningful squeeze pressure in the lending market; what's driving the rally is demand for upside, not forced short covering.
The Street is cautiously constructive but divided on valuation. Roth Capital holds a Buy with a $10 target, implying roughly 59% upside from current levels. Stifel sits at Hold with a $7 target, a tighter leash that reflects the ongoing pricing headwinds. The mean analyst target is $8.50 — around 35% above the current price — though both these updates date from late February and early March, before this week's move, so the gap may overstate how much upside analysts currently see. The bull case rests on margin expansion: DMC's DynaEnergetics segment showed a EBITDA margin recovery from 8.0% to 11.3% in prior work, beating estimates by a wide margin. EPS surprise has ranked in the 96th percentile over time, suggesting the company more often than not clears the bar. The ORTEX short score of 38.9 puts BOOM in the lower-medium tier for short pressure, consistent with a stock where bears are reducing exposure rather than building it.
One institutional move stands out. Steel Partners Holdings, previously a major shareholder, reported trimming its stake by 778,598 shares to 1.19 million as of late February — a reduction of roughly 39%. Against that, Tontine Management filed a new position of 902,306 shares as of December 31, effectively replacing the Steel Partners exit with fresh institutional capital. Vanguard and Dimensional added modestly in Q1. The net picture is one of ownership rotation rather than broad exit, with the register reconstituting around new hands at lower prices. CFO Eric Walter sold small tranches in late February and early March near these price levels, though the values involved ($10,000–$40,000) are minor and largely offset by concurrent restricted stock awards across the management team.
The question today is whether Q1 delivers on the margin recovery thesis. NobelClad's backlog, DynaEnergetics pricing momentum, and any tariff commentary will be the deciding factors for how the market reads this print — particularly after a week where the stock pre-positioned for a beat.
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