Oruka Therapeutics enters its June 2 earnings event riding a contradictory setup: the stock is down 12% over the past month to $55.01, yet options traders have turned sharply more optimistic than at any point in recent memory.
The options signal is the standout. The put/call ratio collapsed to 0.36 on June 1 — more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.65. That reading is close to the 52-week low of 0.25, meaning call demand relative to put buying has rarely been this elevated over the past year. Investors are loading up on upside exposure even as the stock retreats, a divergence that rarely goes unnoticed heading into a binary catalyst.
Short interest tells a more nuanced story. Bears have been covering aggressively. Short interest as a percentage of free float dropped 31% over the past week alone, falling from roughly 19% to just under 13% of float — a rapid exit by shorts who had built meaningful positions through May. The lending market remains relaxed: availability runs at around 209% of current short interest, well into the normal range, with borrow costs barely above 0.68%. There is no squeeze dynamic here. Shorts who want to rebuild can do so cheaply and easily.
The bull case is anchored in clinical narrative. The stock carries a 75% probability-of-approval estimate for ORKA-001, the company's lead psoriasis program targeting the p19 subunit of IL-23, with pivotal data expected in the second half of 2026. Analysts who raised targets aggressively in late April — Barclays lifted to $160, BTIG to $151, UBS to $100 — have not backed away. The mean analyst price target is $138, roughly 150% above the current price, though that gap reflects how sharply the stock has sold off from late-April highs near $76 rather than any fresh positive re-rating. Bears point to unproven annual dosing, crowded competition in the IL-23 space from established biologics, and a balance sheet burning cash with no revenue — the trailing P/E and EV/EBITDA are both deeply negative. The ORTEX short score, at 63, has eased from readings above 68 earlier in May as shorts covered but remains elevated in absolute terms.
Historical reactions have been large and unpredictable. The March 13 print sent the stock up 30% the following day, while a May 13 catalyst produced a 6% five-day decline. The range of outcomes has been wide. Tonight's print is therefore less a question of whether ORKA-001's profile is differentiated and more about whether the company can deliver a clinical update — on dosing durability, enrollment pace, or competitive positioning — that justifies a stock now sitting 28% below analyst consensus.
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