Three bearish signals converged on NHI this week. Short interest, put buying, and borrow costs all moved in the same direction following a Q1 earnings miss.
Short interest jumped 28.7% in a single week to 4.1% of free float — the biggest weekly surge since late April. That takes the one-month increase to 21%. The timing is not coincidental. National Health Investors reported Q1 results that missed analyst expectations, raising questions about occupancy trends in its senior housing portfolio amid persistent labor cost inflation. The stock has fallen 6.1% over the past week and is now down 6.5% over the past month.
The put-call ratio hit 0.65 on June 1. That is 21% above its 20-day average of 0.54. The z-score stands at 2.14 — a statistically significant elevation. Put buying at this level, relative to NHI's recent baseline, reflects genuine hedging activity rather than routine positioning. The next earnings event is scheduled for August 4.
Cost to borrow climbed 56% over the past week to 0.29% — and has risen 250% over the past month. In absolute terms the rate remains low. More telling is availability: at 5,357% of short interest, there is no shortage of lendable shares. The borrow market is far from tight. Bears can build positions without friction.
Wells Fargo's John Kilichowski lowered his price target on June 1 from $84 to $79, maintaining an Equal-Weight rating. This is the second cut since April 22, when he trimmed from $86 to $84. Truist Securities and Cantor Fitzgerald maintain Buy and Overweight ratings respectively, with targets of $89 and $94. The mean analyst target sits at $86.38 — still 20% above the current price of $71.76.
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