Enbridge heads into Q1 earnings with shorts rebuilding

Enbridge closes the week at CAD 73.01 — up 3% on the week but 4% softer over the past month — and the contrast between a strengthening price and a quietly building short position makes this a more interesting setup than the stock's defensive reputation usually suggests.

The most notable shift in positioning this week is the scale of the short-side rebuild. Estimated short interest jumped to 1.69% of the free float as of April 28, a 14% rise week-on-week and roughly 10% above where it was a month ago. The step-change arrived cleanly: shares short held flat through mid-April at around 32 million, then moved up decisively to 36.8 million. That level represents the high end of the recent range. Still, with borrowing costs sitting below 1% annualised at 0.81% and share availability running at well over 1,000% of short interest — meaning the lending pool is loose by any measure — this is not a squeeze-prone setup. The short rebuild reflects a deliberate directional bet, not a scramble for hard-to-find borrow. Days to cover is 4.4, comfortably manageable.

The Street appears broadly constructive but has been quiet recently — no analyst rating changes appear in the data for the past several weeks. The mean price target stands at CAD 76.14, implying roughly 4% upside from the current price. That's a modest premium, consistent with the kind of low-volatility, yield-driven name where the debate is less about re-rating and more about capital structure. The EV/EBITDA multiple is running at 13.1x, up fractionally over the past week and month, a small valuation creep in a largely stable name. The dividend quality score ranks in the 89th percentile — near the top of the universe — which anchors much of the long thesis. EPS surprises have also been consistently positive, ranking in the 70th percentile. The factor profile is otherwise unremarkable: momentum and value scores land near mid-table.

The most concrete catalyst arriving this week is the Canadian government's approval of Enbridge's CAD 2.9 billion Westcoast expansion project, reported on April 29. That adds a tangible infrastructure growth story to a name that investors traditionally hold for yield stability rather than project delivery. With Q1 results confirmed for May 4, the expansion approval gives the bulls a cleaner narrative heading into the print. The prior earnings reaction was muted: the February result delivered a one-day move of just -0.58% and was essentially flat over the following week. The comparable from November 2025 saw a 0.74% gain on the day and a 2.1% five-day drift. Neither history points to a name that moves violently around results.

Close peers TRP and PPL both outpaced Enbridge on the week, up 6.6% and 5.9% respectively, suggesting the broader Canadian midstream complex caught a stronger bid. EPD and KMI moved more modestly, up 2.8% and near flat. The relative lag in Enbridge's 3% weekly gain against the TSX midstream peers may partly explain the short rebuild: a laggard in a rising sector can attract tactical short positions ahead of an event.

The May 4 earnings print is the immediate focus — watch whether management quantifies the capital deployment timeline for the newly approved Westcoast expansion, and whether that changes the short position's calculus against a yield-anchored base of institutional ownership where Vanguard, GQG, and BMO collectively hold over 10% of the float.