Old Dominion Freight Line sits at an unusual crossroads. Short interest has climbed sharply even as the stock gains ground and analysts raise targets — a rare divergence worth watching closely.
Short interest hit 5.87% of free float on June 2. That's up 12.9% in a single week and 7.2% over the past month. Shorts are adding to positions at the fastest pace in weeks.
At the same time, a wave of analyst target increases has landed since late April. Susquehanna raised its target to $224 on June 2. Citigroup lifted to $225. Stephens & Co. holds the highest target at $240. Baird upgraded the stock outright on April 28, moving from Underperform to Neutral with a $229 target.
The stock is currently trading at $229 — above the consensus mean of $212.64. Bears are effectively fighting a stock that has outrun most analyst forecasts on the upside.
The put/call ratio sat at 0.69 on the pulse trigger date — 2.68 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.51. That's a notable skew toward downside protection. The 52-week high for the PCR is 0.96, so options traders are not at extremes, but the directional shift is clear. More money is flowing into puts relative to calls than has been typical over the past month.
Today's reading has pulled back to 0.46, still within range but worth monitoring if it climbs again.
Despite the short interest build, the lending market remains wide open. Availability stands at 662% — meaning roughly six shares are available to borrow for every one already borrowed. That's tighter than the 1,000%+ readings seen in mid-May, but still well within the normal range.
Cost to borrow is also low at 0.50% annually. Short sellers face no meaningful constraint in adding more positions. There is no borrow squeeze in sight at current levels.
The ORTEX score sits at 49.5, roughly neutral. Momentum is the strongest pillar. The bear case rests on freight volumes: Q3 shipments per day fell 7.9% year-over-year and tonnage dropped 9.0%. Revenue per day in October was running 6.5–7.0% below the prior year.
Old Dominion has been able to offset volume declines with pricing power — revenue per hundredweight rose 4.7% year-over-year. That trade-off is what divides bulls from bears. The stock is up 11.3% over the past month and 5.8% in the past week alone.
What to watch: The next earnings date is July 29. If freight volume trends worsen before then, the short position build has room to accelerate. If pricing holds and volumes stabilise, the converging put and short pressure could unwind quickly.
Data summary
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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