Jacobs Solutions enters the first week of June with short sellers making their most aggressive move in years — SI up 55% in a month — even as the CEO steps in to buy the dip.
The short-side buildup is striking in both pace and scale. Short interest has climbed from roughly 3.8% of the free float in late April to nearly 6.0% today — a 55% increase over the month. In the past week alone, SI rose another 16%, adding around 1.2 million shares. That puts the absolute short position at just under 7 million shares, the highest level in the 30-day window visible in the data. The move is clearly directional and accelerating rather than noise. The official FINRA fortnightly figure — 6.57 million shares settled mid-May — confirms the trend predates the most recent spike.
Despite that positioning, the borrow market remains far from stressed. Availability is extremely loose at around 1,297% of short interest — meaning there are roughly 13 shares available to borrow for every one already shorted. Even at the tightest point of the past year, availability only dropped to about 737%. Cost to borrow has crept higher, up 9% on the week and 27% over the month to 0.46%, but in absolute terms that remains firmly in "easy borrow" territory. Short sellers are not paying a premium to hold their positions. Options positioning corroborates the lack of panic: the put/call ratio of 0.57 is only marginally above its 20-day average of 0.54, a z-score of just 0.24. The options market is neither particularly bearish nor defensive right now.
The most interesting counter-signal is the CEO buying the stock. Bob Pragada purchased 3,601 shares on May 15 at $111.09, a $400,000 outlay at what was then close to a multi-month low. A director, Manuel Fernandez, added shares on both May 8 and May 13. Net insider buying over the past 90 days totals roughly 5,700 shares and $671,000 in value. That's a meaningful cluster — CEO conviction purchases below $115 with the stock now trading at $122 — and it tells a different story from the one short sellers are writing.
The Street leans constructive but is recalibrating. Most analysts hold Buy or Outperform ratings, with the consensus sitting at hold only because a handful of Equal-Weight and Neutral names drag the average. The mean price target of around $158 implies roughly 30% upside from current levels — significant, though several analysts trimmed targets after the May earnings miss. Wells Fargo cut its target from $137 to $131, Keybanc from $154 to $150, and Baird from $130 to $126 after the print; Citi and RBC were the exceptions, nudging targets modestly higher. Valuation multiples are not stretched: the stock trades at roughly 15.9x trailing earnings and 11.5x EV/EBITDA, with both compressing slightly over the past 30 days. EPS momentum scores well — ranking in the 83rd percentile on a 30-day basis and the 90th percentile for forward 12-month year-on-year growth — which suggests the Street's growth expectations remain intact even if near-term contract visibility is cloudy.
The May earnings print provides useful context. The stock fell 3.2% the day after results on May 5 and slid a further 12.7% over the following five days — a materially negative reaction that explains much of why short interest has ratcheted up. The stock has since partially recovered, gaining 5.3% this week to $121.94, but it remains 5.4% below where it was a month ago. Peer performance adds texture: KBR gained 6.6% on the week and SAIC surged nearly 12%, while Leidos dipped 1%. Jacobs' weekly rebound looks respectable but sits in the middle of the pack — not the clear laggard it has been, but not catching up to the group's leaders either.
The August 4 earnings date is now the focal point. Whether the post-Q2 short build reflects sustained concern about contract wins and margin trajectory — or proves a fade as the stock rebounds toward analyst targets — becomes clearer at that print.
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