MAC is navigating one of the sharper short-interest builds in the retail REIT space, even as a high-profile analyst upgrade this week argues the market is mispricing the stock.
The positioning story has turned notably more crowded over the past month. Short interest has climbed 54% in 30 days to 6.0% of the free float — up from roughly 3.9% at the start of May and accelerating further this week with a 12% jump in just five sessions. The catalyst is clear from the news: Macerich priced a $403.2 million common stock offering this week, upsizing the deal and flooding the market with new shares. Equity offerings routinely draw short sellers looking to arbitrage the dilution; the borrow market, though, is showing no real stress. Availability is extremely loose at 849%, meaning roughly eight shares remain available in the lending pool for every one already borrowed. Borrowing costs are a negligible 0.41% annualised. This is a crowding story, not a squeeze setup.
Deutsche Bank flipped to Buy on Tuesday and lifted its target from $20 to $27 — a 35% target increase and the most aggressive call on the stock from a major bank in recent memory. The upgrade lands with MAC trading at $22.24, putting the new Deutsche target a full 21% above the current price. The broader analyst community has been moving in the same direction. Since mid-May, Scotiabank, Mizuho, and Citigroup all raised their targets, and the consensus sits at a buy rating with a mean target near $23. Goldman Sachs is the lone persistent bear, maintaining a Sell with a $19 target. J.P. Morgan holds Underweight at $19. The bull case centres on improving mall fundamentals and the REIT's ability to refinance and redeploy capital; the bear case is that the equity offering underlines ongoing balance-sheet pressure and that the stock is already pricing in a recovery that hasn't fully materialised.
The options market is not signalling elevated anxiety. The put/call ratio is running at 0.82, essentially in line with its 20-day average of 0.83, with a z-score close to zero. The 52-week range on the PCR extends from 0.50 to 1.47, so the current reading is squarely in the middle — options traders are neither rushing for downside protection nor making aggressive bullish bets. That restraint is consistent with a market that is waiting to see whether the capital raised this week gets deployed effectively.
Institutional ownership is substantial. BlackRock holds 16.3% of shares, FMR (Fidelity) recently added over 2.4 million shares to reach 9.3%, and Vanguard's combined vehicles hold close to 13% of the company. Wellington and CenterSquare have also been buyers in recent filings. The weight of passive and active institutional money is considerable, which may be limiting how aggressively the new short interest can push the stock lower regardless of the dilution narrative. The ORTEX short score has drifted up from 42.8 in mid-May to 47.6 now — elevated but not yet in territory that would flag extreme pressure.
The next earnings event is flagged for August 5. The most recent print on May 6 saw the stock slip 0.6% on the day before recovering 2.2% over the following week. The setup heading into that report — how the equity offering proceeds are being allocated, leasing trends across the portfolio, and whether refinancing activity has improved — is the real watchlist for the weeks ahead.
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