Almonty Industries enters June at a genuine inflection point — the tungsten miner turned cash-flow positive for the first time in years this week, Oppenheimer raised its price target to $25, and the stock is up 8.3% in a single session on the back of it all.
The catalyst cluster is unusually dense for a junior miner. On June 3, Oppenheimer maintained its Outperform rating and lifted its target to $25 — a move that arrived on the same day the company disclosed it had crossed into positive operating cash flow at its Sangdong mine in South Korea. A pivotal AGM is imminent, Phase 2 expansion planning is underway, and potential Russell 1000 index inclusion — which would force passive fund buying — is also in frame. The stock closed at CAD 28.56, already above Oppenheimer's freshly raised target, which is worth noting. The street price target may lag the move; the data-consistency gap between CAD 28.56 and a USD $25 target is partly a currency effect, partly the speed of the re-rating.
The lending market tells a story of shorts retreating, not pressing. Short interest is minimal — just 0.69% of free float, down more than 31% over the past month as short sellers unwound positions during the rally. Availability is exceptionally loose at 1,286% — there are roughly 13 shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out — meaning there is no squeeze dynamic at play. Cost to borrow has eased sharply, falling around 41% over the past month to just over 1%, reinforcing that bearish conviction is thin. The ORTEX short score of 29.4 is correspondingly low, placing the stock in the bottom third of the universe for short pressure.
The institutional picture adds genuine texture. FMR (Fidelity) added more than 10 million shares in Q1, bringing its stake to 6.4% of shares outstanding. Goldman Sachs added over 4 million shares in the same period. On the other side, Plansee Holding AG — the industrial tungsten group that had been a key strategic backer — trimmed 2.5 million shares in February, and Deutsche Rohstoff cut its position by nearly 10 million shares in Q1. The net read is that institutional money managers are stepping in as strategic sellers rotate out. The CEO, Michael Black, bought 100,000 shares at CAD 14.95 in late March — a meaningful personal purchase at prices now some 90% below Tuesday's close — though the CFO sold 20,000 shares a day earlier, and director Andrew Frazer sold 70,666 shares at CAD 26.00 in mid-May, pocketing roughly C$1.34 million near recent highs.
EPS momentum is the standout factor score: both the 30-day and 90-day readings rank in the 99th percentile. That means analyst estimate revisions have been running faster to the upside than almost any other stock in the universe — consistent with the cash-flow inflection and the Oppenheimer target lift. The P/E multiple, at 15.3x, has compressed around 25 points over the past month as earnings estimates rose faster than the price, though the price-to-book of 13.4x reflects a rich premium for an asset-intensive miner. EV/EBITDA at 16.3x is elevated for the sector.
Earnings history shows a mixed post-result pattern. The May 15 Q1 release caused a 6% one-day drop but recovered to a 2.4% gain by day five. A separate event in early May triggered a 12.6% spike on the day before reversing 11.9% by the week's end. The next scheduled earnings date is August 10. The setup between now and then is less about the quarterly numbers and more about whether the AGM delivers on Phase 2 financing, whether the Russell reconstitution forces index buying, and whether Sangdong sustains the cash-flow positive trajectory that just moved the market today.
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