Rivian surged another 20% this week to $17.29 — building on last week's 11.6% bounce — yet the short sellers who loaded up through April and early May remain firmly in place.
The clearest tell is in the short interest data. SI is unchanged at 12% of the free float, down less than 1% on the week despite a stock that has now rallied more than a third off its lows. Compared to the previous note, the picture is consistent: bears are not covering into strength. The ORTEX short score edged down only marginally to 70.5 from a recent peak above 71.5 — still elevated and firmly in the upper quintile of the broader universe. Shorts have had two consecutive weeks of sharp price moves against them and have barely moved. That persistence is worth noting.
The lending market reinforces the view that there is no pressure forcing a capitulation. Availability has actually loosened this week, rising to around 119% from 106% a week ago — meaning the pool of shares available to borrow has grown relative to outstanding short positions. Borrow costs eased 8% over the week to 0.47% APR, near the cheapest level of the past 30 days. Options positioning is similarly relaxed: the put/call ratio at 0.84 is fractionally below its 20-day average of 0.85, with a z-score of -0.63 — no sign of defensive hedging into the rally. The absence of squeeze dynamics in either the lending or options market gives shorts room to wait.
The Street is split on what the rally means. Bulls point to Georgia plant capacity running 50% above initial plans and the promise of the R2 launch as the inflection point for profitability — Needham and Benchmark both hold $23–25 targets. TD Cowen reiterated a Buy this week with a $20 target, a signal that at least one active follower sees the current $17.29 price as still below fair value. Bears, however, focus on the fact that the R2 launch must be a near-perfect execution for the financial model to work, with downside pressure on average selling prices and heavy upfront costs from the Uber autonomous venture. DA Davidson sits at Neutral with a $15 target — below the current price — after lifting it just a dollar in May. The mean Street target is $18.15, leaving only modest implied upside from here. EPS momentum scores are in the bottom quintile of the universe, and the F-score remains weak, reflecting the structural cash burn that underpins the bear case.
Institutional ownership adds a layer of complexity to the positioning picture. Porsche Automobil Holding recently added 62.9 million shares, bringing its stake to 16.4% of the company — the largest single institutional position. Amazon holds another 12.4%. Combined, these two strategic holders account for nearly 29% of shares outstanding, which meaningfully compresses the genuine free float available to short sellers even as availability readings look adequate. On the insider side, both the CFO and the founder-CEO sold shares in the $13–16 range across May — modest in size and likely plan-driven, but worth noting as the stock has now rallied well above those sale prices.
Earnings arrive June 22. The last print produced a 6.5% one-day drop and an 11.7% five-day decline — the pattern for RIVN around results has consistently been negative. With the stock having now recovered sharply into that date, the setup into Q1 results is whether the rally has front-run any improvement in the delivery or margin numbers, or whether the bears who held through a 20%+ move have simply been waiting for the print to press their position.
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