GE Vernova heads into early June with a notable split signal: options traders are more defensive than at any point in recent memory, even as short interest remains modest by any absolute standard.
The clearest tension is in the options market. The put/call ratio hit 1.30 on June 2 — nearly three standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 1.23 — making it the most defensive options reading relative to recent norms in the data set. The z-score of 2.87 is the highest of the past 30 days and sits well above the 52-week low of 0.88, though still far from the 52-week peak of 1.71. That gap suggests the hedging activity is elevated but not yet at extremis. What it does reflect is a meaningful shift in how options traders are positioning around a stock that has just lost 9.4% on the week and 8.8% over the past month, pulling back to $969.67 from the post-earnings highs near $1,070.
Short interest tells a different story — and it is one worth unpacking. Directionally, shorts have been rebuilding. SI % of free float has climbed to 3.3%, up from roughly 2.9% reported in the last note dated May 27, with the bulk of the increase concentrated in the week beginning May 26 — shares short jumped from around 7.85 million to above 9 million in a single step. That is a 15% weekly increase and marks the highest short interest level in the 30-day history. The lending market, however, offers no reinforcement for a squeeze narrative. Availability is extraordinarily loose, with approximately 110 million shares available to borrow relative to roughly 9 million short — availability running at more than 35x current short interest. Cost to borrow at 0.41% APR is almost negligible. The shorts are building, but they are doing so cheaply and with no friction whatsoever.
The Street remains broadly constructive, though the post-earnings consensus upgrade cycle is now six weeks old. Following the Q1 beat on April 22 — which drove a 16% single-day gain — a wave of analysts raised targets into the $1,150–$1,400 range, with Jefferies, Evercore, Baird, and Guggenheim all lifting to $1,300 or above. The one dissenting move came from BNP Paribas, which downgraded to Neutral with a $1,190 target on April 27. At the current price of $969.67, GEV trades at a material discount to the bull-case targets — Baird's $1,400 implies roughly 44% upside from here. The Street consensus is formally a "hold" with eight analysts at that rating, but the weight of post-earnings price targets clusters well above current levels. Valuation is demanding: the PE runs at 50.7x and EV/EBITDA at 33.7x, though both have compressed as the stock has pulled back. Price-to-book at 14.2x is also elevated, having declined about 1.8 points over the past month. Factor scores present one standout flag: EV/EBIT ranks in the 4th percentile — meaning GEV is among the most expensively valued stocks in the universe on that measure. EPS surprise, by contrast, ranks at the 98th percentile, a reflection of the consistent beat history.
Institutional ownership is anchored by the usual index-weight holders — BlackRock at 7.7%, Vanguard at 6.5%, Fidelity at 6.0%. The most notable active-manager move in the latest reporting period was Capital Research and Management, which added 1.71 million shares to reach a 2.3% stake. On the insider side, the only open-market transaction in recent weeks was a $2.5 million sale by Chief Accounting Officer Matt Potvin on May 14 — routine in size and not typically a directional signal at that level. The cluster of director stock awards on the same date carries no cash value.
Earnings are on the calendar for July 23. The two most recent prints delivered positive day-one reactions of 16% and 3.2%, with the five-day window mixed — up 7.2% after April's blowout, then giving back 3.9% after the subsequent event. What to watch into that date: whether the options put/call ratio continues to expand from its current elevated z-score, and whether the short interest rebuild — which accelerated sharply in late May — sustains or reverses as the stock finds a level relative to the Street's reset target range.
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