Pediatrix Medical Group heads into the summer with shorts quietly adding pressure and options traders showing more caution than they have in months — a modest but consistent tightening of the bearish screws ahead of the August 4 earnings date.
Short sellers have been methodically rebuilding positions. Short interest climbed to 4.6% of the free float by June 2, up roughly 15% since early May when it bottomed near 4.0%. The move has been gradual rather than aggressive — no single-day spike, just a steady drift higher across five weeks. At 3.64 million shares short and days-to-cover of 3.2, there is no technical squeeze threat here, but the directional trend is unambiguous. Borrow conditions stay loose: cost to borrow at 0.48% is essentially free money for shorts, and availability is extraordinarily wide at roughly 1,386% of short interest — meaning the lending pool dwarfs the existing short base by a factor of fourteen. There is no supply constraint stopping further accumulation.
Options positioning has shifted alongside. The put/call ratio climbed to 0.35, running about one standard deviation above its 20-day average of 0.21. That is well off the year's defensive peak of 1.0, but the directional move is notable: through most of May, the PCR hovered between 0.05 and 0.20, heavily call-weighted. The jump since late May represents a meaningful rotation toward downside hedging, coinciding with the short interest rebuild. Together, both signals point to growing caution rather than outright bearishness.
Analyst sentiment sits in neutral territory. The most recent move came from UBS in mid-May, where the firm lifted its target from $22 to $25 while keeping a Neutral rating — a constructive nudge, but no conviction upgrade. Truist similarly raised its target to $23 in April, staying at Hold. The mean target across the coverage universe is $23.17, implying about 6% upside from the current $21.76 close. The bull case centres on reimbursement strength — same-unit revenue grew 4.0% year-on-year in Q1, driven by a 6.7% improvement in net reimbursement factors. The bear case is harder to dismiss: total Q1 revenue of $493.8 million missed expectations, patient volume declined 2.7%, and adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 and 2027 has not moved higher despite the headline reimbursement gains. On valuation, the EV/EBITDA trailing multiple sits around 6.4x — inexpensive relative to healthcare services peers — while the trailing P/E is elevated near 9.4x on a normalised earnings basis. The EV/EBIT percentile rank at 93 signals the stock screens cheap on operating earnings.
The insider register tilts net-selling over the past 90 days. Director Shirley Weis sold nearly $856,000 worth of stock at $23.75 on May 13 — the most material single transaction in recent months, executed at a price notably above today's close. CFO Kasandra Rossi and General Counsel Mary Ann Moore also sold in February as part of what appear to be routine award-related disposals. No insider buying has appeared in the record. The net 90-day position is technically positive in share terms due to award grants, but in cash terms all discretionary activity has been to the sell side.
The last two earnings prints tell a nuanced story about how the stock behaves around results. Q1 2026 numbers (reported May 7) produced a +5.85% one-day move, recovering strongly after a mild initial dip. The prior event registered a 0.9% decline on the day but gained 5.7% over the following week. Both episodes resolved higher by the five-day mark. With August 4 now the date to watch, the setup — higher short interest, a PCR that has restarted its climb, and a vol-of-vol picture that is anything but sleepy — makes the next quarterly print the clearest catalyst on the calendar.
Close peer CI dropped 2.9% on the week, while SEM was flat, down just 0.3%. Pediatrix's 0.9% weekly gain stands out as relative outperformance against that healthcare backdrop, even as the positioning data tells a more cautious story beneath the surface.
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