LKNC.Y enters June with a striking divergence at its core — the earnings growth story has rarely looked stronger, yet short sellers just staged their sharpest weekly rebuild in months.
The short-selling activity this week is the most notable data point. Short interest jumped roughly 50% over the past week to 1.6% of the free float — a level still modest in absolute terms, but the speed of the move demands attention. Shares short climbed from around 3.4 million to just over 5.1 million in the space of a few sessions. The rebuild follows a sustained decline from late April, when short interest was closer to 6.1 million shares. Despite the weekly spike, borrowing the stock remains cheap and relaxed: cost to borrow has dropped 25% over the week to just 0.59% annualised, its lowest level of the past six weeks. Availability is extraordinarily loose — there are roughly 13 shares available to borrow for every one already lent out — leaving no squeeze pressure in the lending market whatsoever. The short-score reading of 36.8 sits in a neutral-to-low zone and has actually eased slightly over the past two weeks. The picture that emerges is of a tactical, low-conviction short rebuild rather than a structural bear position.
The bull case rests on an earnings momentum story that ranks near the top of any peer universe. The EPS surprise factor places Luckin in the 99th percentile globally. Forward EPS growth expectations rank in the 100th percentile — meaning the analyst community is projecting earnings growth above virtually every comparable company in the database. That optimism is reflected in a mean analyst price target of $45.58, implying roughly 40% upside from the current $32.53 close. The PE multiple has eased about 8% over the past month to 14x, and EV/EBITDA has compressed similarly to around 8.3x. For a company with consensus-estimated revenue near $8.8 billion and net income approaching $640 million, those are not stretched multiples. Earnings momentum scores over both 30 and 90 days (ranked 80th and 74th percentile respectively) reinforce the direction of travel on revisions.
The ownership picture carries a significant recent development. Temasek Holdings, the Singaporean state investment vehicle, appears to have initiated or substantially increased a position of 17.1 million shares — roughly 5.3% of shares outstanding — as of a filing dated May 18. That is the largest new entry in the recent holder data and represents meaningful validation from a long-term institutional investor with a strong track record in Asian consumer names. Centurium Capital remains the anchor shareholder at 18.9%. Insider activity in the period has been minimal — a CFO sale of just 200 shares at $33.23 in mid-May carries no meaningful signal.
One earnings reaction stands out in the history. The April 29 print produced a 12.7% single-day gain and held most of that over the following five days, adding another 7.8%. The most recent event on May 18 went the other way, giving back 1.5% on the day though largely recovering within the week. The next quarterly release is scheduled for July 30 — still eight weeks out — giving positioning ample time to shift before the catalyst arrives.
The Temasek entry, the EPS percentile rankings, and the cheap valuation point in the same direction. The short rebuild this week adds an interesting counterweight — one to monitor as July 30 approaches.
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